Bedrock (BR) is set to be unlocked tonight—and after a round of violent pumps.

First lay out the most hardcore data.

Tonight (September 20) Beijing time, BR will unlock about 40.63 million tokens. At the current price, that’s roughly $10.34 million, accounting for 18.68% of the current circulating supply. This proportion is quite high compared with recent token unlock events—one-time release of nearly two-tenths of the circulating supply, and the pressure from supply shocks is real.

Before the unlock, it gets pumped by double—this script feels familiar.

Looking at this daily chart, BR’s recent performance can only be described as “exaggerated.” The 7-day gain is 375.89%, the 90-day increase is 738%, and the 1-year gain is over 1125%. This morning, the high briefly touched $1.2178, and the 24-hour increase at one point exceeded 18%.

The driver behind this rally is related to the “Optimism Splash” event and the expansion of the Bedrock ecosystem. But the problem is that the sharp run-up before the unlock is often creating liquidity for distributing the supply. People in the group are already saying: “New highs on unlock day—this script is too familiar. Let the bullets fly for a bit.”

Technical read: the short term is already overheated.

From the daily chart, several signals are worth paying attention to:

· Moving averages are severely deviated: the price (1.21) is far above MA7 (0.75), MA25 (0.40), and MA99 (0.22). The short-term moving-average system has been pulled to an absurd distance, and the need for mean reversion is very strong.

· Choppy stagnation at the highs: after touching the 1.40 peak, the price pulled back. It’s currently consolidating at a high level, and the momentum for an advance is weakening.

· Solid trading volume: the 24-hour trading volume is 403 million USDT. With ample turnover, it indicates that positions are being exchanged quickly.

Under this kind of structure, chasing at the highs has very low cost-effectiveness.

How to watch key levels?

Key support to watch: first, see whether MA7 (around 0.75) can hold. If the unlocked tokens are sold off, it’s likely the price will return into this range. Below that is MA25 (0.40), which is an even sturdier support.

Overhead resistance: the recent high at 1.40 is a strong resistance level. Against the backdrop of 18.68% of circulating supply about to be released, breaking through this level in the short term will be difficult.

Let’s say something practical.

The unlock itself isn’t necessarily a bearish signal. The key depends on two things: who will take the other side, and whether the holders of the unlocked tokens are willing to sell. If Optimism’s ecosystem expansion narrative is strong enough, and there’s incremental capital willing to accumulate at this level, then the supply impact could be absorbed. But if not, the unlock is plain and simple selling pressure.

From community sentiment, people are already warning that “chasing on the day of the supply event is basically fueling the market maker.” The wording is rough, but the point isn’t wrong.

Trading reference: If you currently hold a position, you may consider deciding whether to stay or exit after the token unlock is released and the market has digested it for a while—don’t go heavy at emotional highs. If you’re currently in cash, wait for the price to pull back near the MA7 and see how strong the support is; it’s much more comfortable than chasing now.

Whether BR’s long-term narrative has value is one matter; how things move in the short term after tonight’s unlock is another. Don’t use long-term logic to justify chasing in your short-term trade.

Risk warning: The above content is an objective整理 of information based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Token unlocks may trigger significant volatility. The release of 18.68% of circulating supply is a major supply event—please be sure to control your position size and manage risk. Investing is risky; enter the market with caution.$BR $BNB #币安广场