Next week’s market will need to watch three lines at the same time: the Federal Reserve’s residual rate-hike effects, Trump’s “major decision” on his policy toward Iran, and expectations of yen intervention.
BlockBeats reported on September 19 that global markets will continue to digest the interest-rate repricing following this week’s first rate hike since 2023. The “higher for longer” path remains the key variable. On the geopolitical front, Trump plans to meet Gulf countries during the UN General Assembly and is nearing a “major decision” on whether to escalate attacks against Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s capital sounded air-raid alarms again after several months, and the oil market’s risk premium and the actual supply repair continue to tug against each other. Japan is also entering a “Silver Week” holiday period; liquidity is relatively thin, and pressure on the yen has intensified, leading to rising expectations of policy intervention.
If the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to climb, rallies in risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are more likely to face selling pressure. If Middle East news further pushes up oil prices, the inflation trade may also be reignited. Which are you more focused on this week: the U.S. dollar/yields continuing to strengthen, or geopolitical news first amplifying volatility?
Figure 1: Next week’s three macro lines suppressing risk assets · Source: partial screenshot of the page
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/368025
BlockBeats reported on September 19 that global markets will continue to digest the interest-rate repricing following this week’s first rate hike since 2023. The “higher for longer” path remains the key variable. On the geopolitical front, Trump plans to meet Gulf countries during the UN General Assembly and is nearing a “major decision” on whether to escalate attacks against Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s capital sounded air-raid alarms again after several months, and the oil market’s risk premium and the actual supply repair continue to tug against each other. Japan is also entering a “Silver Week” holiday period; liquidity is relatively thin, and pressure on the yen has intensified, leading to rising expectations of policy intervention.
If the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to climb, rallies in risk assets like $BTC and $ETH are more likely to face selling pressure. If Middle East news further pushes up oil prices, the inflation trade may also be reignited. Which are you more focused on this week: the U.S. dollar/yields continuing to strengthen, or geopolitical news first amplifying volatility?
Figure 1: Next week’s three macro lines suppressing risk assets · Source: partial screenshot of the page
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/368025
