US dollars, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks—let’s look at them together today
U.S. stocks’ heat is back up again; let’s continue the discussion for a few points.
From last Friday’s close to this weekend, a few events need to be put in order.
1. If the Friday PCE comes in below 2.5%, it’s a positive for risk assets; above 2.6%, the market will reprice rate-cut expectations.
2. The S&P 500’s recent pushes higher haven’t had volume follow-through; technically, it looks more like it’s waiting for the earnings window to get direction.
3. Bank stocks are more sensitive to the yield curve. If the 2- to 10-year spread widens, the financial sector moves first.
The timing on the U.S. stock side directly affects the opening sentiment in crypto. In other words, if you compare it to crypto, it’s basically BTC’s opening direction.
In crypto, here’s the simple read: BTC 80312 (-1.00%), ETH 2576. BTC is showing relative strength on its own, but altcoins aren’t moving—this suggests liquidity is contracting, not that there’s genuine incremental inflow.
My suggestion is to watch from the sidelines—don’t chase rallies and don’t panic-sell into dips.
By the way, do you still have a position on the meme side recently?
#美股 #BTC #Trading watch
For personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
U.S. stocks’ heat is back up again; let’s continue the discussion for a few points.
From last Friday’s close to this weekend, a few events need to be put in order.
1. If the Friday PCE comes in below 2.5%, it’s a positive for risk assets; above 2.6%, the market will reprice rate-cut expectations.
2. The S&P 500’s recent pushes higher haven’t had volume follow-through; technically, it looks more like it’s waiting for the earnings window to get direction.
3. Bank stocks are more sensitive to the yield curve. If the 2- to 10-year spread widens, the financial sector moves first.
The timing on the U.S. stock side directly affects the opening sentiment in crypto. In other words, if you compare it to crypto, it’s basically BTC’s opening direction.
In crypto, here’s the simple read: BTC 80312 (-1.00%), ETH 2576. BTC is showing relative strength on its own, but altcoins aren’t moving—this suggests liquidity is contracting, not that there’s genuine incremental inflow.
My suggestion is to watch from the sidelines—don’t chase rallies and don’t panic-sell into dips.
By the way, do you still have a position on the meme side recently?
#美股 #BTC #Trading watch
For personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice.