#日本央行加息至31年高位
Japan hikes rates to a 31-year high—will global liquidity change course?
The Bank of Japan pushed interest rates up to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. Don’t underestimate these 25 basis points—Japan is one of the world’s biggest sources of “cheap money.” As the cost of yen borrowing starts to rise, what really needs to be re-priced is global leverage and carry-trade capital.
This time the market didn’t outright panic. $BTC even regained the $80,000 level again. On September 18, the Bitcoin ETF saw a daily net inflow of $433 million, and the SOL ETF has also maintained net inflows for 12 straight weeks. This suggests that, for now, capital hasn’t shown signs of large-scale withdrawal—instead, it looks like some are starting to race ahead.
What I’m more concerned about is the second half. This rate hike by Japan was already priced in by the market. The real danger is the yen beginning to strengthen persistently, forcing carry trades to unwind. Back in 2024, when the yen carry trade crowded trade got hit, BTC dropped more than 16% in a week—that’s a clear warning.
Right now, what the market is pricing is a liquidity inflection point, not these 25 basis points. If afterward the yen keeps rising and Japanese government bond yields continue to surge, yet BTC can still hold steady—that would be genuine strength. Conversely, if carry-trade capital starts to pull out, today’s rebound could just be the last gasp.
Japan hikes rates to a 31-year high—will global liquidity change course?
The Bank of Japan pushed interest rates up to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. Don’t underestimate these 25 basis points—Japan is one of the world’s biggest sources of “cheap money.” As the cost of yen borrowing starts to rise, what really needs to be re-priced is global leverage and carry-trade capital.
This time the market didn’t outright panic. $BTC even regained the $80,000 level again. On September 18, the Bitcoin ETF saw a daily net inflow of $433 million, and the SOL ETF has also maintained net inflows for 12 straight weeks. This suggests that, for now, capital hasn’t shown signs of large-scale withdrawal—instead, it looks like some are starting to race ahead.
What I’m more concerned about is the second half. This rate hike by Japan was already priced in by the market. The real danger is the yen beginning to strengthen persistently, forcing carry trades to unwind. Back in 2024, when the yen carry trade crowded trade got hit, BTC dropped more than 16% in a week—that’s a clear warning.
Right now, what the market is pricing is a liquidity inflection point, not these 25 basis points. If afterward the yen keeps rising and Japanese government bond yields continue to surge, yet BTC can still hold steady—that would be genuine strength. Conversely, if carry-trade capital starts to pull out, today’s rebound could just be the last gasp.