🍑9.20 midday market outlook. 🍑
$BTC Viewpoint:
The big BTC ("big pie") has broken above the previous high on the hourly timeframe, setting a new peak. It’s less than 300 points away from the high at 82282. Will this now trigger an hourly pullback? I don’t know—just have to watch as it moves. The location marked by the red box above formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and that bearish engulfing pattern closed at a high level. This is a valid bearish engulfing pattern. Once it forms and closes, everyone knows that a pullback is needed at the current timeframe. However, it’s not the case that when a bearish engulfing forms you should immediately short. Right now, the big pie is still consolidating and oscillating around 81726–80521. A bearish engulfing at a high level is only telling you to stay alert that I might be about to see a pullback. It’s just a signal to help you get prepared.
So when can you short? Only when the consolidation box of 81726–80521 breaks down and structural damage occurs. Otherwise, if no structural break appears, the price may continue to range/oscillate around 87126–80521.
This upmove in the big pie was initiated by breaking out of the consolidation box from 75046–77762. Look at the yellow segment pointed to by the red arrow below. If you measure the target on a 1:1 basis, the target area is around 84800. But there are two prerequisites:
First, the pullback must not trade below 79337. If the price retraces and runs below 79337, it will likely return to the consolidation box 75046–77762 and continue oscillating.
Second, the price must hold above 81726. Only by holding above 81726 do you have the chance to reach the 1:1 upward target. Both conditions are required. If it can’t push higher and can’t break down, it will continue to oscillate in the 81726–80521 range.
The big pie: after volume broke above 81307, the aggressive trend-followers chased long. If 80852 breaks down with volume and the subsequent retest fails to regain, the right-side short was invalid—set your stop loss.
On the hourly timeframe: if it breaks above 81307 and holds, then look for 81823–82811. If it can’t get above 81307, it’s meaningless.
On the 4-hour timeframe: if it breaks below 80852, look for 79880–78977.
Resistance above: 81307–81823–82811
Support below: 80852–79880–78977
$ETH Strategy:
The second BTC ("second pie") with volume breaking above 2626—chase long on the right side, with stop loss recovered.
2602 with volume breaking down—chase short on the right side, with stop loss set.
Check the comment section.
$BTC
#日本央行加息至31年高位
$BTC Viewpoint:
The big BTC ("big pie") has broken above the previous high on the hourly timeframe, setting a new peak. It’s less than 300 points away from the high at 82282. Will this now trigger an hourly pullback? I don’t know—just have to watch as it moves. The location marked by the red box above formed a bearish engulfing pattern, and that bearish engulfing pattern closed at a high level. This is a valid bearish engulfing pattern. Once it forms and closes, everyone knows that a pullback is needed at the current timeframe. However, it’s not the case that when a bearish engulfing forms you should immediately short. Right now, the big pie is still consolidating and oscillating around 81726–80521. A bearish engulfing at a high level is only telling you to stay alert that I might be about to see a pullback. It’s just a signal to help you get prepared.
So when can you short? Only when the consolidation box of 81726–80521 breaks down and structural damage occurs. Otherwise, if no structural break appears, the price may continue to range/oscillate around 87126–80521.
This upmove in the big pie was initiated by breaking out of the consolidation box from 75046–77762. Look at the yellow segment pointed to by the red arrow below. If you measure the target on a 1:1 basis, the target area is around 84800. But there are two prerequisites:
First, the pullback must not trade below 79337. If the price retraces and runs below 79337, it will likely return to the consolidation box 75046–77762 and continue oscillating.
Second, the price must hold above 81726. Only by holding above 81726 do you have the chance to reach the 1:1 upward target. Both conditions are required. If it can’t push higher and can’t break down, it will continue to oscillate in the 81726–80521 range.
The big pie: after volume broke above 81307, the aggressive trend-followers chased long. If 80852 breaks down with volume and the subsequent retest fails to regain, the right-side short was invalid—set your stop loss.
On the hourly timeframe: if it breaks above 81307 and holds, then look for 81823–82811. If it can’t get above 81307, it’s meaningless.
On the 4-hour timeframe: if it breaks below 80852, look for 79880–78977.
Resistance above: 81307–81823–82811
Support below: 80852–79880–78977
$ETH Strategy:
The second BTC ("second pie") with volume breaking above 2626—chase long on the right side, with stop loss recovered.
2602 with volume breaking down—chase short on the right side, with stop loss set.
Check the comment section.
$BTC
#日本央行加息至31年高位
