Bitcoin’s “4-year cycle” may be starting to morph.
In the past few cycles, there’s been a very clear pattern:
Bear market bottom → the next halving, about 17 months later.
If this pattern is applied mechanically, then the next halving is expected to occur in April 2028, which would suggest that this cycle’s bottom should appear around October–November 2026.
But the question is:
On July 1, 2026, BTC already hit an annual low of about $57,747.
From the historical high of about $126,000 in 2025, this cycle’s maximum drawdown is roughly 54%.
And in the past two cycles:
* 2017→2018: about -84%
* 2021→2022: about -77%
* 2025→2026: currently about -54%
This may indicate something very important:
BTC is gradually moving from an “extreme 4-year cycle” into a “mature cycle.”
With the growth of ETFs, institutions, corporate holdings, derivatives, stablecoins, on-chain finance, and RWA, there are increasingly more market participants, and a higher share of long-term capital.
The past cycles may have looked like:
Massive surge → bubble → -80% → bear bottom → next cycle
In the future, it could gradually become:
Rising → a phase top → a -40% to -60% pullback → sideways consolidation absorbing the move → then new highs
So what I care about most right now isn’t whether “the historical pattern” tells us there must be another bottom in October–November.
Instead, it’s this:
Is $57.7K truly the real Higher Low of this cycle?
Next, all you need to watch are three things:
① Whether $57.7K gets broken down again
② Whether BTC can break back above the ~$126K high from 2025
③ Whether 2027 sees a new Higher High
If $57.7K holds for the long term and ultimately reclaims $126K, then the 2025 peak may have been only a phase top—not the end of a full bull market in the traditional sense.
And if future BTC drawdowns become shallower and shallower, what we may need to rethink isn’t “the bull-bear cycle has disappeared,” but rather:
BTC is shifting from a “halving-driven 4-year cycle” to a long-term upward cycle driven jointly by “halving × market maturity × real-world applications.”
What do you think?
In July 2026, is $57.7K the true cycle bottom, or only the first bottom?
#BTC $BTC
In the past few cycles, there’s been a very clear pattern:
Bear market bottom → the next halving, about 17 months later.
If this pattern is applied mechanically, then the next halving is expected to occur in April 2028, which would suggest that this cycle’s bottom should appear around October–November 2026.
But the question is:
On July 1, 2026, BTC already hit an annual low of about $57,747.
From the historical high of about $126,000 in 2025, this cycle’s maximum drawdown is roughly 54%.
And in the past two cycles:
* 2017→2018: about -84%
* 2021→2022: about -77%
* 2025→2026: currently about -54%
This may indicate something very important:
BTC is gradually moving from an “extreme 4-year cycle” into a “mature cycle.”
With the growth of ETFs, institutions, corporate holdings, derivatives, stablecoins, on-chain finance, and RWA, there are increasingly more market participants, and a higher share of long-term capital.
The past cycles may have looked like:
Massive surge → bubble → -80% → bear bottom → next cycle
In the future, it could gradually become:
Rising → a phase top → a -40% to -60% pullback → sideways consolidation absorbing the move → then new highs
So what I care about most right now isn’t whether “the historical pattern” tells us there must be another bottom in October–November.
Instead, it’s this:
Is $57.7K truly the real Higher Low of this cycle?
Next, all you need to watch are three things:
① Whether $57.7K gets broken down again
② Whether BTC can break back above the ~$126K high from 2025
③ Whether 2027 sees a new Higher High
If $57.7K holds for the long term and ultimately reclaims $126K, then the 2025 peak may have been only a phase top—not the end of a full bull market in the traditional sense.
And if future BTC drawdowns become shallower and shallower, what we may need to rethink isn’t “the bull-bear cycle has disappeared,” but rather:
BTC is shifting from a “halving-driven 4-year cycle” to a long-term upward cycle driven jointly by “halving × market maturity × real-world applications.”
What do you think?
In July 2026, is $57.7K the true cycle bottom, or only the first bottom?
#BTC $BTC
