š° Why the $7 trillion quad-witching is only the tip of the iceberg of market anxiety?
Recently, the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets saw a $7 trillion quad-witching eventā the second-largest such event since 2020. In simple terms, itās when a large number of bullish and bearish options expire, causing the market to suddenly sell large volumes of futures contracts to hedge risk. This can cause sharp swings in short-term market sentiment, but the underlying reasons are worth digging deeper.
Why is this news important?
The reason this event draws attention is that it exposes the marketās extreme sensitivity to the Federal Reserveās monetary policy. According to CryptoBriefing data, quad-witching typically occurs around changes in interest rates. The fact that this one was so large suggests that expectations for rate hikes have already been priced in. More deeply, it reflects the marketās risk-off, hedging sentiment amid current regulatory uncertainty. Unlike the 2020 event, this time also came with news that Bitcoin mining power (hashrate) fell for the first time, indicating that both liquidity conditions and fundamentals are under pressure at the same time.
Impact on the market
For BTC and ETH, short-term sentiment may take a hit, but the overall trend hasnāt changed. Specifically:
- Price impact: BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure, but they will very likely not alter the current upward trend. Why? Because during the same period, Nasdaq ETF inflows reached $316M, showing that institutional capital is still flowing in.
- Structure impact: This suggests that market makers and high-frequency traders are adjusting their strategies; future trading volume may become more concentrated in the top coins with higher liquidity.
- Historical reference: After a similar event in 2019, Bitcoin rose 12% over the following two weeks. This time may be similar, but itās important to watch whether U.S. CPI data can continue to stay below the key threshold of 3%.
Trading approach
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish š Predicts short-term downside pressure, but the long-term trend remains unchanged
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
š” Personal view: This $7 trillion quad-witching suggests the market is preparing for a potential 2.5 basis-point rate hike. If CPI jumps above expectations to 4%, this view is invalid.
ćInvalidation conditionsćIf, within the next two weeks, CPI jumps above expectations to 4% or higher, this short-term downside view is invalid.
This article has no project sponsorship, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
ā ļø Not investment advice; predictions are for reference only
#$7Tquad-witchingmarkssecondlargesteventever
#åøåŗåØę $ETH
Recently, the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets saw a $7 trillion quad-witching eventā the second-largest such event since 2020. In simple terms, itās when a large number of bullish and bearish options expire, causing the market to suddenly sell large volumes of futures contracts to hedge risk. This can cause sharp swings in short-term market sentiment, but the underlying reasons are worth digging deeper.
Why is this news important?
The reason this event draws attention is that it exposes the marketās extreme sensitivity to the Federal Reserveās monetary policy. According to CryptoBriefing data, quad-witching typically occurs around changes in interest rates. The fact that this one was so large suggests that expectations for rate hikes have already been priced in. More deeply, it reflects the marketās risk-off, hedging sentiment amid current regulatory uncertainty. Unlike the 2020 event, this time also came with news that Bitcoin mining power (hashrate) fell for the first time, indicating that both liquidity conditions and fundamentals are under pressure at the same time.
Impact on the market
For BTC and ETH, short-term sentiment may take a hit, but the overall trend hasnāt changed. Specifically:
- Price impact: BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure, but they will very likely not alter the current upward trend. Why? Because during the same period, Nasdaq ETF inflows reached $316M, showing that institutional capital is still flowing in.
- Structure impact: This suggests that market makers and high-frequency traders are adjusting their strategies; future trading volume may become more concentrated in the top coins with higher liquidity.
- Historical reference: After a similar event in 2019, Bitcoin rose 12% over the following two weeks. This time may be similar, but itās important to watch whether U.S. CPI data can continue to stay below the key threshold of 3%.
Trading approach
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish š Predicts short-term downside pressure, but the long-term trend remains unchanged
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
š” Personal view: This $7 trillion quad-witching suggests the market is preparing for a potential 2.5 basis-point rate hike. If CPI jumps above expectations to 4%, this view is invalid.
ćInvalidation conditionsćIf, within the next two weeks, CPI jumps above expectations to 4% or higher, this short-term downside view is invalid.
This article has no project sponsorship, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
ā ļø Not investment advice; predictions are for reference only
#$7Tquad-witchingmarkssecondlargesteventever
#åøåŗåØę $ETH
