Before the market opened on Monday, there was one good piece of news and one bad piece of news for the oil market.

Good news: The U.S. Central Command said that over the past two weeks, the volume of crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz reached a six-month high; over the past two months, it helped more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil transit the strait, and the main channel mine-sweeping has been completed. Bad news: The Wall Street Journal reported that jet fuel facilities at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, were attacked, with thick black smoke seen on site. Traders are now focused on Brent’s opening on Monday. Since oil prices climbed above $100, they’ve been able to reach the decision table of the Federal Reserve.

First, the first point—this is one of the biggest bearish factors for crude oil in recent months. What it is hitting is market assumptions: even if the war is still going on, oil can be moved out more and more easily. The oil price surged from the 90s to above 100, and a large part of the premium came from “unreliable transport.” If supply can gradually route around disruptions from the conflict, then on Monday some of that risk premium could be unwound.

But don’t take this as meaning Hormuz has returned to normal. Independent shipping data still shows that daily passage is clearly below pre-war levels: on Thursday, only four cargo ships passed, versus a 10-day average of 16. This is a decline in the premium, not a premium of zero.

Now the second point—slightly bullish, but it doesn’t outweigh the first. Reporting confirms that what was damaged was airport jet-fuel facilities, not Saudi core crude oil production capacity; it did not create any new gap of “tens or hundreds of thousands of barrels per day” in losses. However, the attack radius has already moved into the Riyadh area—this is something to watch closely. Over the weekend, crude oil in the dark market ultimately turned bearish, and it was still falling after the Saudi attack on Saturday.

There’s another piece of background: CCTV cited insiders saying that Qatar and Pakistan, as mediators, have informed Iran that the U.S. is prepared for talks and is taking steps seriously. When looking for a catalyst, don’t treat it as a guarantee of a deal being concluded or deliveries being made.

Right now, the hardest observation is whether on Monday Brent can break below 100. If it closes below that level, the volatility center may shift downward, and in the following few trading days it is likely to trade in the 94–99 range. For global markets, it would be like removing an alarm: the probability of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushing above 5% would cool off significantly, and pressure on gold and U.S. equities would ease by a noticeable margin.