How much does Bitcoin need to improve before we stop being afraid?
Almost 12 months since the peak. Three previous cycles to compare.
Are we seeing the first signs of spring—or getting ahead of ourselves? 👇
How long did Bitcoin take to find its bottom in previous cycles?
• 2013–2015: around 13.5 months.
• 2017–2018: around 12 months.
• 2021–2022: around 12.5 months.
We’re approaching that historical window. But Bitcoin doesn’t owe us a recovery because the calendar says it’s time.
These periods measure peak to bottom. Finding a bottom and confirming a recovery are two different things. And three cycles are context, not a crystal ball.
My take: early spring is a thesis worth testing. It still needs evidence.
Holding ground through bad news is the first step. Buyers now need to show they can do more than absorb selling: break resistance, defend those levels, and keep pullbacks from turning into fresh lows.
That would strengthen the case. Failed breakouts and lost support would weaken it, regardless of how neatly the dates line up.
The tricky part? Sentiment can stay frozen while market conditions begin to improve. But calling every bounce “spring” won’t make winter end either.
So what would change your mind: a stronger market structure—or simply a higher price that makes you feel safer?
#Bitcoin $BTC
Almost 12 months since the peak. Three previous cycles to compare.
Are we seeing the first signs of spring—or getting ahead of ourselves? 👇
How long did Bitcoin take to find its bottom in previous cycles?
• 2013–2015: around 13.5 months.
• 2017–2018: around 12 months.
• 2021–2022: around 12.5 months.
We’re approaching that historical window. But Bitcoin doesn’t owe us a recovery because the calendar says it’s time.
These periods measure peak to bottom. Finding a bottom and confirming a recovery are two different things. And three cycles are context, not a crystal ball.
My take: early spring is a thesis worth testing. It still needs evidence.
Holding ground through bad news is the first step. Buyers now need to show they can do more than absorb selling: break resistance, defend those levels, and keep pullbacks from turning into fresh lows.
That would strengthen the case. Failed breakouts and lost support would weaken it, regardless of how neatly the dates line up.
The tricky part? Sentiment can stay frozen while market conditions begin to improve. But calling every bounce “spring” won’t make winter end either.
So what would change your mind: a stronger market structure—or simply a higher price that makes you feel safer?
#Bitcoin $BTC
