🚨 Trump signed the sanctions bill. Russian crude first climbed above $120—then oil prices became the variable
Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
On September 18, the White House confirmed that Trump signed a new round of sanctions. The name is a long one: the “Sanctions on Russia and Iran Act.” Energy is the target—directed squarely at Russia’s energy industry and that shadow fleet of oil tankers—while also extending the earlier measures against Iran for another round. Once the news landed, Russia’s ESPO blended crude moved above $120 per barrel this week for the first time since April; Urals crude also brushed around the $110 mark.
Let’s start with the first layer: the sharpest increase is Russia’s own oil—not the global average. The ESPO premium to Brent has been pulled into a record range of about $20 to $30 per barrel, according to Reuters. Buyers scramble for cargoes, and sellers quote even higher prices. The logic is a bit twisted, but it’s real. This week, Chinese refineries have been buying even more aggressively, taking not only their usual supply but also cargoes that were originally headed elsewhere 🔥
Now the second layer: Brent was already above $100 before the sanctions took effect. Each round of Middle East supply disruption pushed it to around $108. Saudi Arabia even reportedly dropped an alternative export route that bypasses Hormuz. As Brent keeps climbing, inflation readings will—sooner or later—follow. Sanctions aren’t the match that ignites the oil price; they’re adding more fuel to the already-burning furnace.
Of course, some say sanctions can suppress Russia’s oil revenue—good news. That’s true for about half of it. In the short term, buyers are forced to seek alternative sources, which actually intensifies the scramble for oil. Prices rise first, and revenue may not fall immediately. The pressure ultimately gets transferred to importing countries.
My own take is that what’s truly worth watching isn’t the wording of any single piece of legislation, but whether, after energy prices reignite inflation expectations, the Fed’s “hand” will get even firmer. When energy gets expensive, the door to rate cuts narrows by an inch. Even risk assets like Bitcoin have to brace for impact 🌍
One camp says this is just geopolitical noise; the other says this is the fuse for a new round of inflation. Which side are you on? 👀
Click the avatar to watch the live stream + join the Jiuji chat group to get daily strategy 🚀
#原油 #美联储 #比特币 #加密市场
Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
On September 18, the White House confirmed that Trump signed a new round of sanctions. The name is a long one: the “Sanctions on Russia and Iran Act.” Energy is the target—directed squarely at Russia’s energy industry and that shadow fleet of oil tankers—while also extending the earlier measures against Iran for another round. Once the news landed, Russia’s ESPO blended crude moved above $120 per barrel this week for the first time since April; Urals crude also brushed around the $110 mark.
Let’s start with the first layer: the sharpest increase is Russia’s own oil—not the global average. The ESPO premium to Brent has been pulled into a record range of about $20 to $30 per barrel, according to Reuters. Buyers scramble for cargoes, and sellers quote even higher prices. The logic is a bit twisted, but it’s real. This week, Chinese refineries have been buying even more aggressively, taking not only their usual supply but also cargoes that were originally headed elsewhere 🔥
Now the second layer: Brent was already above $100 before the sanctions took effect. Each round of Middle East supply disruption pushed it to around $108. Saudi Arabia even reportedly dropped an alternative export route that bypasses Hormuz. As Brent keeps climbing, inflation readings will—sooner or later—follow. Sanctions aren’t the match that ignites the oil price; they’re adding more fuel to the already-burning furnace.
Of course, some say sanctions can suppress Russia’s oil revenue—good news. That’s true for about half of it. In the short term, buyers are forced to seek alternative sources, which actually intensifies the scramble for oil. Prices rise first, and revenue may not fall immediately. The pressure ultimately gets transferred to importing countries.
My own take is that what’s truly worth watching isn’t the wording of any single piece of legislation, but whether, after energy prices reignite inflation expectations, the Fed’s “hand” will get even firmer. When energy gets expensive, the door to rate cuts narrows by an inch. Even risk assets like Bitcoin have to brace for impact 🌍
One camp says this is just geopolitical noise; the other says this is the fuse for a new round of inflation. Which side are you on? 👀
Click the avatar to watch the live stream + join the Jiuji chat group to get daily strategy 🚀
#原油 #美联储 #比特币 #加密市场
