🚨 The Fed hikes rates by 25 bps, yet gold taps a new one-week high
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On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. It also hinted that further tightening may be on the way. High interest rates are always the enemy of non-yielding assets—money can simply sit in Treasuries and collect coupon payments. By common sense, when rates are hiked, gold should be pushed down. And it did drop more than 1% that day. But by Friday, spot gold surged all the way to a one-week high. It had already risen over 2% on the prior trading day, fully recouping the losses from Wednesday📈
First, the top layer: what turned the situation around was crude oil. Oil prices fell for the third straight trading session. Concerns over disrupted Saudi supply eased, and the market let go of the worry that energy could keep inflation propped up. Once that Saudi supply line calms down, the risk premium gets squeezed outward. If expensive energy continues to ebb, the odds that the Fed is forced to extend the tightening cycle decrease—so the rate-hike “sword” is dulled a notch🛢️
Now the second layer: the dollar weakened during Thursday’s rebound, and U.S. Treasury yields also backed off slightly from the sharp spike after the hike. With two short-term factors that suppress gold loosened at the same time, the gold price naturally rose. That rebound, in fact, cut down about half of the two legs suppressing gold. Honestly, I myself don’t fully understand it, but the data is right there: rates didn’t move, yet sentiment had already stepped ahead
Of course, some say this is just noise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still hovering around the key 5% level. If real rates rise, gold could be pressed down again at any time. That part is true💡 But flip it around: the moment the market votes with its feet, what it trades is never textbook logic—it’s the turning-point expectations. The hike itself is a headwind. But if oil prices and yields retreat together, the pressure becomes background noise. What really deserves attention isn’t this rate hike by itself, but which of these two variables changes its mind first👀 One camp says gold is only rebounding; the other says the trend turning point is already here. Which side are you on?
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#黄金 #美联储 #比特币 #Inflation
Group: 点击进入玖玖的粉丝群
On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike since 2023. It also hinted that further tightening may be on the way. High interest rates are always the enemy of non-yielding assets—money can simply sit in Treasuries and collect coupon payments. By common sense, when rates are hiked, gold should be pushed down. And it did drop more than 1% that day. But by Friday, spot gold surged all the way to a one-week high. It had already risen over 2% on the prior trading day, fully recouping the losses from Wednesday📈
First, the top layer: what turned the situation around was crude oil. Oil prices fell for the third straight trading session. Concerns over disrupted Saudi supply eased, and the market let go of the worry that energy could keep inflation propped up. Once that Saudi supply line calms down, the risk premium gets squeezed outward. If expensive energy continues to ebb, the odds that the Fed is forced to extend the tightening cycle decrease—so the rate-hike “sword” is dulled a notch🛢️
Now the second layer: the dollar weakened during Thursday’s rebound, and U.S. Treasury yields also backed off slightly from the sharp spike after the hike. With two short-term factors that suppress gold loosened at the same time, the gold price naturally rose. That rebound, in fact, cut down about half of the two legs suppressing gold. Honestly, I myself don’t fully understand it, but the data is right there: rates didn’t move, yet sentiment had already stepped ahead
Of course, some say this is just noise. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still hovering around the key 5% level. If real rates rise, gold could be pressed down again at any time. That part is true💡 But flip it around: the moment the market votes with its feet, what it trades is never textbook logic—it’s the turning-point expectations. The hike itself is a headwind. But if oil prices and yields retreat together, the pressure becomes background noise. What really deserves attention isn’t this rate hike by itself, but which of these two variables changes its mind first👀 One camp says gold is only rebounding; the other says the trend turning point is already here. Which side are you on?
Click the profile picture to watch the live stream + join the Jiu Jiu chat group for daily strategies🚀
#黄金 #美联储 #比特币 #Inflation
