$93 HYPE—are you in or not?
First, the surface picture: new highs, then a pullback, but the trend is still intact.
In the last 24 hours, it’s retreated 2% from 94.5. Spot is around 92.3–92.6, and OKX perps are near 93. Market cap is $23.2B, ranking in the top 10.
Both the daily and 4-hour charts are in uptrends. It launched from 75–76, then after breaking the descending trendline it accelerated. The 4-hour RSI peaked at 79—overbought. Daily RSI is 66—hot in the short term, but fine for the mid-term.
First thing: a new product launches—HYPE shifts from “a coin” to “collateral”
The platform just rolled out manual lending/borrowing: users can pledge HYPE or BTC to borrow USDC/USDT. In the first day, borrowing volume hit $269M.
In plain language: before, holding HYPE meant waiting for it to pump; now you can pledge it to borrow money and keep playing. Demand for HYPE isn’t just speculation anymore—it becomes “hard collateral” inside the platform.
Second thing: 99% fee buyback and burn—but the high valuation is the original sin
Hyperliquid annualized fees are around $1B; 99% goes into the Assistance Fund, which uses them to buy back and burn HYPE. The share of perpetual DEX revenue is about 80%.
Circulating market cap: $23.2B; FDV: about $88B.
Revenue is highly dependent on perpetual trading volume.
On Sep 29, 14.2M tokens unlock; on Oct 6, core contributors unlock 9.92M.
Buybacks feel amazing—but unlocks hurt. A few earlier unlock events were digested by the market, but this time the nominal amount isn’t small. Are you afraid or not?
Third thing: macro is unfriendly, but BTC is above 81K
The Fed just hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%—hawkish.
Risk assets are under pressure.
But BTC bounced from 76–77K (the day before yesterday) to around 81K. Total crypto market cap is $2.76T, and sentiment is greedy.
HYPE is stronger relative to BTC—basically “a high-beta asset with fundamentals.” The market gives it a good hand; HYPE also shows strength on its own.
Resistance levels: 95–97 → 100 psychological level → 108–115
Support levels: 89–90 (prior high + psychological) → 80–82 → 74.8–76.4
Trading plan
Aggressive short-term:
Around 93, try a small long position. Stop-loss: below 91.5–92. Take profit first at 95–97 for part of the position, then reassess at 100. Small size—don’t get carried away.
More steady approach:
Wait for a pullback to 89.5–91, then add longs in batches. Stop-loss: below 88. First target: 100. Second target: 108. If it breaks below 88, cut down or stay on the sidelines.
Short conditions:
If the daily closes below 89 with high volume, or if it revisits 80–82 and can’t hold, then consider shorting into strength. Targets: 76–78.
Mid-to-long term:
You buy into the buyback logic. Treat 93 as a trend holding level—but you need to be able to withstand volatility from unlocks. If it really dumps hard into 75–80, that’s the spot for a big add.
First, the surface picture: new highs, then a pullback, but the trend is still intact.
In the last 24 hours, it’s retreated 2% from 94.5. Spot is around 92.3–92.6, and OKX perps are near 93. Market cap is $23.2B, ranking in the top 10.
Both the daily and 4-hour charts are in uptrends. It launched from 75–76, then after breaking the descending trendline it accelerated. The 4-hour RSI peaked at 79—overbought. Daily RSI is 66—hot in the short term, but fine for the mid-term.
First thing: a new product launches—HYPE shifts from “a coin” to “collateral”
The platform just rolled out manual lending/borrowing: users can pledge HYPE or BTC to borrow USDC/USDT. In the first day, borrowing volume hit $269M.
In plain language: before, holding HYPE meant waiting for it to pump; now you can pledge it to borrow money and keep playing. Demand for HYPE isn’t just speculation anymore—it becomes “hard collateral” inside the platform.
Second thing: 99% fee buyback and burn—but the high valuation is the original sin
Hyperliquid annualized fees are around $1B; 99% goes into the Assistance Fund, which uses them to buy back and burn HYPE. The share of perpetual DEX revenue is about 80%.
Circulating market cap: $23.2B; FDV: about $88B.
Revenue is highly dependent on perpetual trading volume.
On Sep 29, 14.2M tokens unlock; on Oct 6, core contributors unlock 9.92M.
Buybacks feel amazing—but unlocks hurt. A few earlier unlock events were digested by the market, but this time the nominal amount isn’t small. Are you afraid or not?
Third thing: macro is unfriendly, but BTC is above 81K
The Fed just hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%—hawkish.
Risk assets are under pressure.
But BTC bounced from 76–77K (the day before yesterday) to around 81K. Total crypto market cap is $2.76T, and sentiment is greedy.
HYPE is stronger relative to BTC—basically “a high-beta asset with fundamentals.” The market gives it a good hand; HYPE also shows strength on its own.
Resistance levels: 95–97 → 100 psychological level → 108–115
Support levels: 89–90 (prior high + psychological) → 80–82 → 74.8–76.4
Trading plan
Aggressive short-term:
Around 93, try a small long position. Stop-loss: below 91.5–92. Take profit first at 95–97 for part of the position, then reassess at 100. Small size—don’t get carried away.
More steady approach:
Wait for a pullback to 89.5–91, then add longs in batches. Stop-loss: below 88. First target: 100. Second target: 108. If it breaks below 88, cut down or stay on the sidelines.
Short conditions:
If the daily closes below 89 with high volume, or if it revisits 80–82 and can’t hold, then consider shorting into strength. Targets: 76–78.
Mid-to-long term:
You buy into the buyback logic. Treat 93 as a trend holding level—but you need to be able to withstand volatility from unlocks. If it really dumps hard into 75–80, that’s the spot for a big add.
