$BTC is just one-third of the way from the historical high. With 96% of the tradable float already released, this spot is not the starting point—it’s the midway up the mountainside. The futures basis has turned negative; nobody in the forward market is willing to pay a premium to take delivery. The funds have no interest in pricing further upside. Don’t get too carried away—any space above needs to be bought with real money. At the current price, the closer you get to the prior high, the more you need to guard against taking profits at high levels.