$BTC Big Pizza’s rebound today is not weak. The current price is 81,232.30, with a 24-hour change of +2.48%. However, we still need to judge whether this rise marks the start of a trend, or merely short-covering before a resistance level. Current price of Big Pizza: 81,232.30; up 24 hours: 2.475%. Open interest contracts have surged by 12.74% within the past 72 hours. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio has dropped by nearly half over the same period to 1.01. This rally is accompanied by strong aggressive buy orders, and the overall price action looks more like a probe and buildup of a squeeze ahead of resistance—after accumulating a large amount of underwater shorts.
My core view: short. Even though the current technicals and derivatives data strongly point to a long-driven squeeze, based on the resonance between the overhead resistance structure and macro tail risks, this trade is a counter-trend attempt that relies entirely on a high risk-reward ratio.
On the macro level: the Fear and Greed Index has jumped sharply to 71. The market is completely surrounded by an extremely bullish narrative as Big Pizza pushes to new highs. This kind of extreme-greed consensus expectation often acts as a contrarian signal for a short-term top. At the same time, driven by global concerns over oil supply, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries has started rebounding again, creating macro pressure on non-yielding assets.
Positioning and the larger timeframe: the larger trend is still strong. Price remains above the 1-hour SMA20 (81,165.12), and the 80,043 support below has been confirmed as valid. Price is currently testing the 24-hour key resistance near 81,732, where there is very strong technical profit-taking sell pressure. If there is a high-volume and strong breakout above 82,141—the absolute line—then the short thesis will be completely invalidated.
Trading plan: I choose to short. You must be clear that this is a high-risk, low-win-rate top-fishing trade that could be crushed at any moment by FOMO funds. Entry zone: 80,826.14–81,732.40. Stop-loss: 82,141.06 as an absolute rule—do not move it or hold through. First downside target: 76,341.55; second downside target: 73,964.14. Because you face the threat of an extremely violent squeeze rally, you must participate with a very small position size for defense.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and connect for discussion.
My core view: short. Even though the current technicals and derivatives data strongly point to a long-driven squeeze, based on the resonance between the overhead resistance structure and macro tail risks, this trade is a counter-trend attempt that relies entirely on a high risk-reward ratio.
On the macro level: the Fear and Greed Index has jumped sharply to 71. The market is completely surrounded by an extremely bullish narrative as Big Pizza pushes to new highs. This kind of extreme-greed consensus expectation often acts as a contrarian signal for a short-term top. At the same time, driven by global concerns over oil supply, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries has started rebounding again, creating macro pressure on non-yielding assets.
Positioning and the larger timeframe: the larger trend is still strong. Price remains above the 1-hour SMA20 (81,165.12), and the 80,043 support below has been confirmed as valid. Price is currently testing the 24-hour key resistance near 81,732, where there is very strong technical profit-taking sell pressure. If there is a high-volume and strong breakout above 82,141—the absolute line—then the short thesis will be completely invalidated.
Trading plan: I choose to short. You must be clear that this is a high-risk, low-win-rate top-fishing trade that could be crushed at any moment by FOMO funds. Entry zone: 80,826.14–81,732.40. Stop-loss: 82,141.06 as an absolute rule—do not move it or hold through. First downside target: 76,341.55; second downside target: 73,964.14. Because you face the threat of an extremely violent squeeze rally, you must participate with a very small position size for defense.
The above is purely my personal opinion. I share trading insights every day—feel free to follow and connect for discussion.