The U.S. Central Command has just confirmed that Iran’s crude oil exports have already fallen to zero under the blockade. In the Strait of Hormuz recently, more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil moved through, and the daily charter rate for tankers has for the first time broken $1 million. A year ago it was still under 100,000.
Saudi Arabia has also shut down its east-west oil pipelines, reducing daily output to 6.238 million barrels—its lowest level since 1990. $CL is oscillating around 102; Brent is above 105. This supply gap cannot be filled at all in the short term.
Today silver’s gain is six times that of gold. $XAU is still trading sideways, but silver’s beta has fully come out. Oil and silver moved at the same time— the market is re-pricing the scarcity of physical supply, and this is harder than any macro narrative.
Tanker rates rose from 100,000 to 1 million in just one year, and the entire Middle East logistics chain has been repriced across the board. Either geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices crash, or another supply shock hits directly—possibly to 120. For now, there are no signs of easing. But there is one data point on Saudi’s side that hasn’t been updated yet.
Saudi Arabia has also shut down its east-west oil pipelines, reducing daily output to 6.238 million barrels—its lowest level since 1990. $CL is oscillating around 102; Brent is above 105. This supply gap cannot be filled at all in the short term.
Today silver’s gain is six times that of gold. $XAU is still trading sideways, but silver’s beta has fully come out. Oil and silver moved at the same time— the market is re-pricing the scarcity of physical supply, and this is harder than any macro narrative.
Tanker rates rose from 100,000 to 1 million in just one year, and the entire Middle East logistics chain has been repriced across the board. Either geopolitical tensions ease and crude prices crash, or another supply shock hits directly—possibly to 120. For now, there are no signs of easing. But there is one data point on Saudi’s side that hasn’t been updated yet.