On Wednesday, the U.S. SEC gave the green light to tokenized U.S. stocks, and on Friday, the share prices of both Coinbase and Robinhood surged together. After reading the terms line by line, I can’t quite understand one thing: Robinhood’s stock tokens were sold in Europe for over a year, and yet—right by chance—this exemption excludes them. The applause the market gave both companies sounded almost equally loud.
First, let’s talk about what this exemption covers. The SEC newly created a category called “a tokenized securities trading venue.” Once a platform gets this status, it doesn’t need to register as an exchange; it can use a licensed AMM pool on a public blockchain to match tokenized U.S. stocks. The market makers supplying liquidity to the pool also don’t need to register as broker-dealers. The conditions are laid out one by one: the platform must be a U.S. company; both traders and liquidity providers must pass review; token holders must receive the same dividend rights and voting rights as ordinary shares—synthetic products with only price exposure don’t qualify. Before a platform lists a particular stock, it must notify the issuing company. The issuer has 30 days to formally object in writing; if they don’t speak up, it’s considered approval. The exemption lasts for five years, and before it expires, the SEC will decide how to write the formal rules.
What most affects business scale is the quota. For tiers like the S&P 500 and Russell 1000, a platform can list at most 75 stocks. For each stock, the trading volume on-chain can’t exceed 0.25% of that stock’s average daily share volume from the previous month. If trading volume exceeds the limit, trading in that stock must be paused; if the number of listed stocks exceeds the quota, the platform simply loses the exemption. Compared with the daily trading volume of large-cap stocks, these quotas are just a small fraction.
The stock-price reaction was far more generous than the terms suggest. On Monday, the Senate voted down a market structure bill, and Coinbase dropped by about 10% that same day. After the exemption came out, it surged for two straight days; on Friday, it jumped 11.66% in a single day, closing at $194.25—more than fully reversing Monday’s drop. Robinhood also rose significantly on Friday, while Charles Schwab fell slightly on the day the exemption was announced. On the same day, Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level. Of the gains over these two days, it’s hard to say how much belongs to the SEC, really.
Back to the question at the start. When CoinDesk tallied the beneficiaries, it named them: Robinhood’s stock tokens, Kraken’s xStocks, and Ondo’s offshore products all fell outside the framework. These products offer only price exposure and don’t come with shareholder rights. That day, Robinhood CEO Tenev still posted in praise, saying tokenization is coming to the U.S. He’s right—but if Robinhood wants to do it in the U.S., it has to rebuild everything to meet standards that include full shareholder rights; the overseas version can’t simply be carried back.
Coinbase didn’t have this business in the U.S. in the first place, so effectively the two companies are starting from the same line. Baird analyst Robert Bamberger said on Friday that the exemption brings Coinbase closer to Robinhood in this business. With the CLARITY Act endlessly delayed, this is a clear positive for Coinbase. Still, his rating remains “Hold,” and his price target is $130—far below the current price. Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo is more optimistic; he thinks there’s finally a pathway to trade truly tokenized stocks. Meanwhile, Thomas Cowan, who’s bullish, reminded everyone that this is only the first controlled step, and the market won’t immediately open up.
I agree with Cowan and Bamberger on this. Coinbase’s trading revenue in Q2 came in below market expectations. Subscription and services revenue accounted for 48% of net revenue, and the company has spent these past two years searching for growth points beyond trading. Tokenized U.S. stocks can be folded into its “everything exchange” story, but based on the current quotas, it’s almost invisible on the income statement over the next one to two years. The stock jumped nearly 20% in two days—what the market is buying is an option whose outcome won’t be known until five years from now.
There are two other things I think will stall this business. One is the issuing company’s right to veto. A 30-day silence counts as consent, which sounds lenient—until a few top issuers publicly object, and then the list of the first 75 stocks will be missing a chunk. The other is the stance of traditional exchanges. The World Federation of Exchanges previously said publicly that it opposes “speeding up” tokenized-stock trading with broad exemptions, and it criticized some products being packaged as stocks when they are not. Nasdaq and the Chicago Options Exchange are members of that organization. These exchanges have enough incentive to lobby issuers to say no. The exemption itself is an executive order; the legislative path in Congress has already been blocked, the regulatory landscape has changed, and this order can also be withdrawn.
I tend to believe the exemption gives Coinbase relatively more benefit than it gives Robinhood. Robinhood already has products, but it can’t use them here, so both companies in the U.S. have to start over from scratch. How much more either company can make from this is short-term locked down by the quota. If, after the first batch of platforms goes live, the quota is quickly used up—and then the SEC relaxes the cap, and top issuers largely stay silent and allow it—that would mean I’m underestimating the business. In that case, it wouldn’t be surprising if Robinhood catches up on the strength of user scale.
$COINB on the weekend around $195, basically tracking Friday’s closing price; $HOODB is about the same. You can look at line #代币化股票 to see the list of platforms that applied for trading-venue status in the first batch, and whether anyone from top issuers came out to object during the 30-day window—this tells you how big the business can get more than that one big bullish candle on Friday.
First, let’s talk about what this exemption covers. The SEC newly created a category called “a tokenized securities trading venue.” Once a platform gets this status, it doesn’t need to register as an exchange; it can use a licensed AMM pool on a public blockchain to match tokenized U.S. stocks. The market makers supplying liquidity to the pool also don’t need to register as broker-dealers. The conditions are laid out one by one: the platform must be a U.S. company; both traders and liquidity providers must pass review; token holders must receive the same dividend rights and voting rights as ordinary shares—synthetic products with only price exposure don’t qualify. Before a platform lists a particular stock, it must notify the issuing company. The issuer has 30 days to formally object in writing; if they don’t speak up, it’s considered approval. The exemption lasts for five years, and before it expires, the SEC will decide how to write the formal rules.
What most affects business scale is the quota. For tiers like the S&P 500 and Russell 1000, a platform can list at most 75 stocks. For each stock, the trading volume on-chain can’t exceed 0.25% of that stock’s average daily share volume from the previous month. If trading volume exceeds the limit, trading in that stock must be paused; if the number of listed stocks exceeds the quota, the platform simply loses the exemption. Compared with the daily trading volume of large-cap stocks, these quotas are just a small fraction.
The stock-price reaction was far more generous than the terms suggest. On Monday, the Senate voted down a market structure bill, and Coinbase dropped by about 10% that same day. After the exemption came out, it surged for two straight days; on Friday, it jumped 11.66% in a single day, closing at $194.25—more than fully reversing Monday’s drop. Robinhood also rose significantly on Friday, while Charles Schwab fell slightly on the day the exemption was announced. On the same day, Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level. Of the gains over these two days, it’s hard to say how much belongs to the SEC, really.
Back to the question at the start. When CoinDesk tallied the beneficiaries, it named them: Robinhood’s stock tokens, Kraken’s xStocks, and Ondo’s offshore products all fell outside the framework. These products offer only price exposure and don’t come with shareholder rights. That day, Robinhood CEO Tenev still posted in praise, saying tokenization is coming to the U.S. He’s right—but if Robinhood wants to do it in the U.S., it has to rebuild everything to meet standards that include full shareholder rights; the overseas version can’t simply be carried back.
Coinbase didn’t have this business in the U.S. in the first place, so effectively the two companies are starting from the same line. Baird analyst Robert Bamberger said on Friday that the exemption brings Coinbase closer to Robinhood in this business. With the CLARITY Act endlessly delayed, this is a clear positive for Coinbase. Still, his rating remains “Hold,” and his price target is $130—far below the current price. Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo is more optimistic; he thinks there’s finally a pathway to trade truly tokenized stocks. Meanwhile, Thomas Cowan, who’s bullish, reminded everyone that this is only the first controlled step, and the market won’t immediately open up.
I agree with Cowan and Bamberger on this. Coinbase’s trading revenue in Q2 came in below market expectations. Subscription and services revenue accounted for 48% of net revenue, and the company has spent these past two years searching for growth points beyond trading. Tokenized U.S. stocks can be folded into its “everything exchange” story, but based on the current quotas, it’s almost invisible on the income statement over the next one to two years. The stock jumped nearly 20% in two days—what the market is buying is an option whose outcome won’t be known until five years from now.
There are two other things I think will stall this business. One is the issuing company’s right to veto. A 30-day silence counts as consent, which sounds lenient—until a few top issuers publicly object, and then the list of the first 75 stocks will be missing a chunk. The other is the stance of traditional exchanges. The World Federation of Exchanges previously said publicly that it opposes “speeding up” tokenized-stock trading with broad exemptions, and it criticized some products being packaged as stocks when they are not. Nasdaq and the Chicago Options Exchange are members of that organization. These exchanges have enough incentive to lobby issuers to say no. The exemption itself is an executive order; the legislative path in Congress has already been blocked, the regulatory landscape has changed, and this order can also be withdrawn.
I tend to believe the exemption gives Coinbase relatively more benefit than it gives Robinhood. Robinhood already has products, but it can’t use them here, so both companies in the U.S. have to start over from scratch. How much more either company can make from this is short-term locked down by the quota. If, after the first batch of platforms goes live, the quota is quickly used up—and then the SEC relaxes the cap, and top issuers largely stay silent and allow it—that would mean I’m underestimating the business. In that case, it wouldn’t be surprising if Robinhood catches up on the strength of user scale.
$COINB on the weekend around $195, basically tracking Friday’s closing price; $HOODB is about the same. You can look at line #代币化股票 to see the list of platforms that applied for trading-venue status in the first batch, and whether anyone from top issuers came out to object during the 30-day window—this tells you how big the business can get more than that one big bullish candle on Friday.