Binance snapshot as of 19:04 on September 19: BTC/USDT was at 81,286 (+4.17%), with a 24-hour range of 77,972.30–81,741.00 and trading volume of about $1.57 billion; ETH was at 2,639.50 (+5.32%), with a range of 2,494.37–2,662.85; SOL was at 111.89 (+5.95%); XRP was at 1.4313 (+8.31%), with a range of 1.3189–1.4391; ZEC was at 1,546.86 (+5.94%), with a range of 1,422.39–1,595.35; BNB was at 766.63 (+2.34%). BTC broke through the on-chain supply resistance zone around 80,200 and is approaching the 365-day moving average near 81,700.
I. Evidence chain of the altcoin season
The most direct indicator is TOTAL3 (total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH): it rose more than 22% over the past 30 days. Over the same period, Ethereum’s market share increased by 10.23% (BlockBeats 9/19). Within 24 hours, AR rose more than 46% and its market cap reached $260 million; STRK rose more than 32% with a market cap of $302 million; and XTZ rose more than 28% with a market cap of $354 million.
Bankless co-founder David Hoffman’s remarks are more direct: “We’re already in the altseason, and the real行情 (market momentum) comes sooner than people think.” He fully sold ETH on May 21, then bought VVV, NEAR, ZEC, HYPE, and LIT. At present, all of them are significantly outperforming ETH (BlockBeats 9/18).
Another piece of evidence comes from HYPE: on September 19, it broke above $94 and is currently at $94.43, up 9.1% over 24 hours. Its market cap rose to $20.996 billion, setting a new all-time high. The positive catalyst is that Payward, Kraken’s parent company, plans to offer U.S. customers on-chain perpetual contracts based on Hyperliquid (BlockBeats 9/19). Hyperliquid’s open interest also hit a new high again after a year.
II. What do macro conditions and liquidity provide?
Interest rate expectations have not continued to tighten. According to the CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of holding rates unchanged in October is 42.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 57.6%. Compared with the day the hike was delivered on September 17, the market’s pricing for another hike in October was only 49.8%; within two days, it rose above 50% (BlockBeats 9/19). As the probability of hikes increased, risk assets rose in parallel, suggesting the market is treating the September move as a “one-off hike,” consistent with Goldman Sachs’ earlier view.
Cross-asset valuation spreads provide another signal. Analyst Miller Cole pointed out that one Bitcoin is currently worth about 18.55 troy ounces of gold, whereas a month ago it was only about 15.3 ounces. The BTC-to-gold price ratio has again moved above the 50-week simple moving average; historically, this level corresponds to a bullish signal (BlockBeats 9/19).
Position structure is also changing. On September 19, Garrett Jin, Hyperliquid’s top ZEC short, consecutively posted two screenshots of ZEC spot withdrawals from Binance: on December 20, 2025, he withdrew 134,000 ZEC and 68,076.23 ZEC from his Binance spot account, totaling about 202,100 ZEC. Valued at the current price, that is worth over $300 million (BlockBeats 9/19). His shorts on the derivatives side are not naked shorts. With the combination of spot and contracts, it suggests that the biggest short in this rally does not necessarily face forced liquidation.
There are similar statements on the institutional side. Tom Lee said the crypto market may still continue to rise. Even if the (CLARITY bill) is not passed, it cannot stop this trend. The on-chain data alignment is that most of the BTC currently being sold is in profit; strong buy-side demand is viewed as a typical feature of a bull market (BlockBeats 9/19).
III. The nature of the rise: beta expansion, not a single-point move
Looking at the data together, the rally on September 19 had three features. First, BTC accelerated after breaking key resistance, rather than rebounding within a range. The level of 80,200 being surpassed means the sell pressure from the upper end of the 77,000–80,000 band has been absorbed. Second, the distribution of gains tilted toward higher beta. XRP (+8.31%), ZEC (+5.94%), and SOL (+5.95%) all outperformed BTC’s +4.17%. TOTAL3’s 30-day gain of 22% indicates capital has already started to spread from mainstream assets into non-mainstream ones. Third, macro did not become a headwind. Although the probability of a rate hike in October rose to 57.6%, the market treats it as a path rather than a risk.
IV. Conditional view (personal view, not trading instructions)
BTC: 81,700 is the level of the 365-day moving average and also the bull-market confirmation line previously given by CryptoQuant. After holding above this level, watch 83,600 and then 88,700. If it meets resistance around 81,700 and falls below 80,200, the first support returns to 79,000, and lower still is 77,972 (24-hour low). Use 79,000 below as a stop-loss reference.
ETH vs. majors: After ETH breaks above 2,662.85 (24-hour high), look for 2,750 and 2,800; stop-loss reference is 2,560. After SOL breaks above 114.32, look for 120; stop-loss is 108. After XRP breaks above 1.4391, look for 1.48 and 1.55; exit if it falls below 1.3189.
How to participate in altseason: TOTAL3 has already risen 22% over the last 30 days, so the risk-reward of chasing higher prices at this point is not as good as at the start. Relative-strength leading names (such as HYPE and ZEC—tokens with independent catalysts) can be followed with smaller positions, but the stop-loss should be tightened. For “catch-up” coins that lack fundamental and liquidity support, rallies usually end very quickly.
When the thesis fails: If BTC is unable to close above around 81,700 for two consecutive days, and TOTAL3 also weakens at the same time, it indicates that this beta expansion was only an event-driven wave. If the probability of an October rate hike continues to rise above 70%, the high-valuation sector will likely come under pressure first. The price levels mentioned in the article are my own estimates; they become invalid as liquidity and news change.
V. Risk warnings
Altseason volatility is not on the same scale as mainstream coins. Even coins up 30%-40% in 24 hours can give back all of their gains within one or two days. On-chain position data and indicator calculation methodologies come from third parties; sample differences can lead to deviations in conclusions. Metrics such as the BTC-to-gold ratio and TOTAL3 are suitable for judging the overall environment, but not as a basis for entering a specific trade. Please keep position sizing within a level you can tolerate. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Summary: BTC broke above 80,200, approached 81,700, TOTAL3 gained 22% over 30 days, HYPE set a new all-time high, and XRP jumped +8.3% in a single day. The signals of altseason are no longer just a single-point trigger, but the key to confirmation still lies in whether BTC can close above the 365-day moving average.
In this round, are you holding beta within the majors, or have you already switched to alts? Let’s chat in the comments.
Data sources: BlockBeats 9/18–9/19 (TOTAL3 30-day rise of over 22%, ETH market share +10.23%, AR/STRK/XTZ price increases; Bankless co-founder David Hoffman’s remarks and positions; HYPE hitting a $94.43 all-time high and Kraken’s parent company plans; CME FedWatch: October hike probability 57.6% and hold probability 42.4%, with October hike pricing at 49.8% on 9/17; BTC about equal to 18.55 troy ounces of gold, and BTC/gold ratio breaking above the 50-week moving average; Garrett Jin’s Binance ZEC spot withdrawal records about 202,100 coins); Binance market data 9/19 19:04 (BTC/ETH/SOL/BNB/XRP/ZEC/SPCXB/PAXG snapshots). There are discrepancies across multiple data sources; the article has already noted this.
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The content above does not constitute investment advice