📈 Ethereum Reclaims $2,600: On the day two major bearish catalysts—rate hikes + the bill collapsing—were already priced in, the shorts were squeezed out for $440 million
On Friday, $ETH saw a violent reversal: it surged from the day’s low of $2,435 all the way to $2,646, up more than 8%, reclaiming the level above $2,600 and setting a new high since September 11. Across the whole market, $680 million was liquidated, with shorts accounting for $440 million. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 64 to 73 in a single day, and the market’s total value exploded by $150 billion to $2.76 trillion.
The drivers are a combination of “bad news fully priced in + a regulatory surprise”: the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan raised to 1.25% on Friday, hitting a 31-year high. But both moves were already considered priced in—CoinMarketCap’s research director bluntly said that “before the two decisions were finalized, they had basically already been priced in.” The real catalyst came on Thursday, when the SEC granted a five-year “innovation exemption,” allowing compliant platforms to trade tokenized U.S. stocks. On the same day, the CFTC submitted two draft crypto regulatory rule proposals to the White House.
On-chain data is even more intriguing: Binance’s cumulative net sell orders reached as high as $903 million, yet the price still climbed from $2,460 to $2,630. Aggressive market sell orders were quietly absorbed by limit buy orders, and 43 million ETH (about 35% of circulating supply) is locked in staking. Even a moderate increase in incremental demand could be enough to move the price.
U.S. stocks took notice: Strategy rose 16.4%, and Coinbase gained 11.7%. The only one that didn’t follow was spot ETFs: after net outflows of $405 million over the prior three days, Friday’s rebound did not confirm any institutional return.
My take:
The short-squeeze-driven rally is fast, but not stable. Whether $2,600 can flip from resistance to support depends on whether this week can close above it. If it holds, then watch the $2,700—$2,800 zone.
There’s still about 47% room before the all-time high of 4946. ETF fund inflows are the fuel for the second leg of the rally.
#以太坊重回2600美元
On Friday, $ETH saw a violent reversal: it surged from the day’s low of $2,435 all the way to $2,646, up more than 8%, reclaiming the level above $2,600 and setting a new high since September 11. Across the whole market, $680 million was liquidated, with shorts accounting for $440 million. The Fear & Greed Index jumped from 64 to 73 in a single day, and the market’s total value exploded by $150 billion to $2.76 trillion.
The drivers are a combination of “bad news fully priced in + a regulatory surprise”: the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan raised to 1.25% on Friday, hitting a 31-year high. But both moves were already considered priced in—CoinMarketCap’s research director bluntly said that “before the two decisions were finalized, they had basically already been priced in.” The real catalyst came on Thursday, when the SEC granted a five-year “innovation exemption,” allowing compliant platforms to trade tokenized U.S. stocks. On the same day, the CFTC submitted two draft crypto regulatory rule proposals to the White House.
On-chain data is even more intriguing: Binance’s cumulative net sell orders reached as high as $903 million, yet the price still climbed from $2,460 to $2,630. Aggressive market sell orders were quietly absorbed by limit buy orders, and 43 million ETH (about 35% of circulating supply) is locked in staking. Even a moderate increase in incremental demand could be enough to move the price.
U.S. stocks took notice: Strategy rose 16.4%, and Coinbase gained 11.7%. The only one that didn’t follow was spot ETFs: after net outflows of $405 million over the prior three days, Friday’s rebound did not confirm any institutional return.
My take:
The short-squeeze-driven rally is fast, but not stable. Whether $2,600 can flip from resistance to support depends on whether this week can close above it. If it holds, then watch the $2,700—$2,800 zone.
There’s still about 47% room before the all-time high of 4946. ETF fund inflows are the fuel for the second leg of the rally.
#以太坊重回2600美元
