Tonight’s after-hours session feels a bit surreal—the thing driving the market isn’t the candlestick chart, it’s the oil pipeline in the Middle East.
A 1,200-kilometer Saudi oil pipeline was blown up, and Aramco directly informed European clients: for October, oil supply quotas are zero. Russian ESPO crude is pushing above $120, and the G7 is discussing the release of strategic reserves. With oil prices burning like this, inflation can’t be held down. $BTC isn’t exactly unjustified for the short term to get hit alongside US stocks.
Interest rates are ugly too. The NYT says the rise in US Treasury yields this time is mainly pushed by the Iran war. The spreads between France and Germany have widened to 100 bps—first time since 2012. Liquidity is tightening; don’t expect risk assets to V-reverse instantly—$ETH as well.
One more detail: the US has sanctioned an Iranian crypto exchange, saying it provided settlement payments for Hormuz. Crypto is getting dragged into a hot war; regulation will only get tighter.
My view: keep your hands off short-term “fly knives”—don’t chase. But Goldman Sachs has been looking at gold at 4200, even 5400; the logic of buying hard currency in turbulent times hasn’t changed. That’s why I’m holding long-term positions. We’ll talk about a rebound after the Middle East gives direction.
#BTC #比特币 #原油 #地缘政治 #加密货币
NFA DYOR
A 1,200-kilometer Saudi oil pipeline was blown up, and Aramco directly informed European clients: for October, oil supply quotas are zero. Russian ESPO crude is pushing above $120, and the G7 is discussing the release of strategic reserves. With oil prices burning like this, inflation can’t be held down. $BTC isn’t exactly unjustified for the short term to get hit alongside US stocks.
Interest rates are ugly too. The NYT says the rise in US Treasury yields this time is mainly pushed by the Iran war. The spreads between France and Germany have widened to 100 bps—first time since 2012. Liquidity is tightening; don’t expect risk assets to V-reverse instantly—$ETH as well.
One more detail: the US has sanctioned an Iranian crypto exchange, saying it provided settlement payments for Hormuz. Crypto is getting dragged into a hot war; regulation will only get tighter.
My view: keep your hands off short-term “fly knives”—don’t chase. But Goldman Sachs has been looking at gold at 4200, even 5400; the logic of buying hard currency in turbulent times hasn’t changed. That’s why I’m holding long-term positions. We’ll talk about a rebound after the Middle East gives direction.
#BTC #比特币 #原油 #地缘政治 #加密货币
NFA DYOR