I’ve stopped treating Fed minutes like some secret document that will suddenly tell us where Bitcoin is going.
The macro setup is more complicated than that right now. The Fed just raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, while inflation is still running above target. The September projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% by year-end, suggesting another hike could still be ahead.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, the dollar has strengthened, and oil has stayed above $100 as energy disruptions keep inflation risks alive. That combination matters more to me than the headline rate decision.
I keep noticing how quickly crypto reduces all of this to “hawkish = bearish” or “cuts = bullish.” I’ve seen this before. Markets are usually messier than the narrative.
What I want from the minutes is the disagreement underneath the decision. How worried are officials about inflation staying sticky? How much weight are they putting on the stronger economy? And how seriously are they treating the risk that higher energy prices become broader inflation?
I don’t fully trust the idea that crypto can ignore those pressures just because liquidity expectations eventually turn.
Maybe the market has already priced the tightening.
Maybe it hasn’t.
Either way, I think the details matter more now than the headline.
#bitcoin #Crypto #fomc #FederalReserve $G $F $NEAR
The macro setup is more complicated than that right now. The Fed just raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, while inflation is still running above target. The September projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% by year-end, suggesting another hike could still be ahead.
At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, the dollar has strengthened, and oil has stayed above $100 as energy disruptions keep inflation risks alive. That combination matters more to me than the headline rate decision.
I keep noticing how quickly crypto reduces all of this to “hawkish = bearish” or “cuts = bullish.” I’ve seen this before. Markets are usually messier than the narrative.
What I want from the minutes is the disagreement underneath the decision. How worried are officials about inflation staying sticky? How much weight are they putting on the stronger economy? And how seriously are they treating the risk that higher energy prices become broader inflation?
I don’t fully trust the idea that crypto can ignore those pressures just because liquidity expectations eventually turn.
Maybe the market has already priced the tightening.
Maybe it hasn’t.
Either way, I think the details matter more now than the headline.
#bitcoin #Crypto #fomc #FederalReserve $G $F $NEAR
