$G This drop is a bit brutal—on the 15m chart it’s directly -5.76%. But the real thing worth watching isn’t the price; it’s the OI.
On the 1h contracts, open interest fell by 9.27%, nominally -5.8M, and on the 15m it’s also -2.79%, continuing to drop in sequence. Price is falling while OI is declining—this is the standard long-side deleveraging, not shorts newly opening to smash the market, but insiders pulling out.
Also, the OI abnormal percentile is down to 96%—it ranks #9 across the whole pool. It’s been extending for several consecutive periods, and the funding rate is still in a high percentile recently. This combination usually means there were too many leveraged longs previously; now it has reached a certain boundary zone where stop-loss orders start triggering in a chain reaction.
The buy/sell ratio is 0.93, and active trades are down -3.5%. The sell pressure isn’t especially extreme, but buyers who would step in aren’t very proactive either. Over the past 24h there’s still 297 million in trading volume, so liquidity is fine—the problem is nobody wants to pick it up at this level.
We’re close to the historical extreme zone. I’m not chasing shorts, but I’m also not catching the knife. Wait until the OI stabilizes before talking.
On the 1h contracts, open interest fell by 9.27%, nominally -5.8M, and on the 15m it’s also -2.79%, continuing to drop in sequence. Price is falling while OI is declining—this is the standard long-side deleveraging, not shorts newly opening to smash the market, but insiders pulling out.
Also, the OI abnormal percentile is down to 96%—it ranks #9 across the whole pool. It’s been extending for several consecutive periods, and the funding rate is still in a high percentile recently. This combination usually means there were too many leveraged longs previously; now it has reached a certain boundary zone where stop-loss orders start triggering in a chain reaction.
The buy/sell ratio is 0.93, and active trades are down -3.5%. The sell pressure isn’t especially extreme, but buyers who would step in aren’t very proactive either. Over the past 24h there’s still 297 million in trading volume, so liquidity is fine—the problem is nobody wants to pick it up at this level.
We’re close to the historical extreme zone. I’m not chasing shorts, but I’m also not catching the knife. Wait until the OI stabilizes before talking.
