Fed rate hikes, the Clear Act setbacks, and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike—all of them are, in essence, bearish. With a sequence of negative catalysts, the market’s bearish expectations are clearly getting heavier
Structurally, there are three key levels. 78,000 is where the weekly chart regains the level; once broken, the structure will be more favorable for an upward trend. 75,000 is support that has been tested four times—each test adds another batch of shorts to the market, while the resistance level has been 77,100. As a result, the gains versus losses at these levels look especially important. The fact that it hasn’t broken down after several attempts suggests that some issues have been underestimated—specifically, the market’s buying strength.
In terms of price action, it also looks like bids have been coming in from 76,000 upward → the 77,100/78,000 zones are reclaimed → shorts begin covering and getting liquidated → in the second half, the rally accelerates noticeably. The market has repeatedly absorbed several negative catalysts and still can’t be pushed down. Once price regains the key levels, the positions that were previously pressing for further downside turn into fuel for the rise.
Ultimately, it still depends on the follow-through. After the short squeeze ends, can it hold above 80,000? If it can, then there’s no need to doubt it—there must be genuine institutional buying and order-book support behind it, which is why the consecutive negatives couldn’t drive price lower. If it slips back below 79,000—no matter whether it’s this week or the open on Monday—then I would lean toward pumping up to bait some longs and lure retail traders onto the train, believing that even under macro negatives the price can still push higher. Once retail is on board, then comes another round of a sudden, heavy sell-off $BTC
Structurally, there are three key levels. 78,000 is where the weekly chart regains the level; once broken, the structure will be more favorable for an upward trend. 75,000 is support that has been tested four times—each test adds another batch of shorts to the market, while the resistance level has been 77,100. As a result, the gains versus losses at these levels look especially important. The fact that it hasn’t broken down after several attempts suggests that some issues have been underestimated—specifically, the market’s buying strength.
In terms of price action, it also looks like bids have been coming in from 76,000 upward → the 77,100/78,000 zones are reclaimed → shorts begin covering and getting liquidated → in the second half, the rally accelerates noticeably. The market has repeatedly absorbed several negative catalysts and still can’t be pushed down. Once price regains the key levels, the positions that were previously pressing for further downside turn into fuel for the rise.
Ultimately, it still depends on the follow-through. After the short squeeze ends, can it hold above 80,000? If it can, then there’s no need to doubt it—there must be genuine institutional buying and order-book support behind it, which is why the consecutive negatives couldn’t drive price lower. If it slips back below 79,000—no matter whether it’s this week or the open on Monday—then I would lean toward pumping up to bait some longs and lure retail traders onto the train, believing that even under macro negatives the price can still push higher. Once retail is on board, then comes another round of a sudden, heavy sell-off $BTC
