After Japan’s rate hike, Ueda’s remarks—why isn’t the market buying it?
The Bank of Japan added 25 basis points, bringing rates to their highest level in 31 years. In subsequent remarks by Ueda Kazuo and Haruhiko Kuroda, the framework leaned slightly hawkish, but the path remained cautious. Overall, what he said sounded neutral. He clearly stated that core inflation is already very close to 2%, and the focus has shifted from pushing it up to 2% to maintaining it near 2%.
If inflation clearly overshoots, there is still room for further tightening. However, when asked when the next hike would be, whether hikes would continue consecutively, or even whether they might raise rates by 50 basis points, he did not rule it out. He said it depends on the inflation outlook, and only if there is a major risk would they implement a large and/or consecutive rate hikes. The market had originally expected a more hawkish tone, but after the remarks, the yen continued to weaken. Expectations for the next rate increase are mainly concentrated on December this year or the first quarter of 2027.
Personally, I think central banks around the world are raising the bar for the next rate hike. In essence, they are waiting for a buffer created by falling energy prices. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the pressure from a global tightening “synchronization” would lessen significantly. For crypto markets and U.S. stocks, this is not a major negative catalyst for now.
Going forward, I’ll keep an eye on the linkage between the yen, U.S. Treasuries, and energy prices, and on intraday trading levels. I’ll go directly into the chat room.
#Zcash现货ETF月度净流入超2.3亿美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The Bank of Japan added 25 basis points, bringing rates to their highest level in 31 years. In subsequent remarks by Ueda Kazuo and Haruhiko Kuroda, the framework leaned slightly hawkish, but the path remained cautious. Overall, what he said sounded neutral. He clearly stated that core inflation is already very close to 2%, and the focus has shifted from pushing it up to 2% to maintaining it near 2%.
If inflation clearly overshoots, there is still room for further tightening. However, when asked when the next hike would be, whether hikes would continue consecutively, or even whether they might raise rates by 50 basis points, he did not rule it out. He said it depends on the inflation outlook, and only if there is a major risk would they implement a large and/or consecutive rate hikes. The market had originally expected a more hawkish tone, but after the remarks, the yen continued to weaken. Expectations for the next rate increase are mainly concentrated on December this year or the first quarter of 2027.
Personally, I think central banks around the world are raising the bar for the next rate hike. In essence, they are waiting for a buffer created by falling energy prices. If the situation in the Middle East eases, the pressure from a global tightening “synchronization” would lessen significantly. For crypto markets and U.S. stocks, this is not a major negative catalyst for now.
Going forward, I’ll keep an eye on the linkage between the yen, U.S. Treasuries, and energy prices, and on intraday trading levels. I’ll go directly into the chat room.
#Zcash现货ETF月度净流入超2.3亿美元 $BTC $ETH $ZEC