After last night’s news officially landed, price did not continue to fall. The rate hike had already been priced in; once it was confirmed, it effectively became a “sell-off is over” situation. The Fed raised rates by 25bp as expected. The market had over 90% expectations for this. The real sell-off and liquidation happened before the decision—when CLARITY did not pass, 76K was broken, and long positions were liquidated.
After the resolution came out, price only fluctuated between 75,000 and 76,500 and there was no second wave of heavy selling. This suggests that the panic selling had already been dumped in that spike at 74,909.
Now that price has pulled back to 76,300, this is a retest after the breakdown; it cannot yet be called a turn back to long. For the 4-hour chart to truly turn strong, price needs to hold above 76K and then move upward. If it cannot get through, around 78.2K remains an observation level for shorts.
The news hit within expectations, but the price hit the structure. Just because it didn’t drop last night doesn’t mean the short side is over. First, watch whether 76,300 can hold. If it holds 76,500, prepare to open a long position with the head size!
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