Don’t be afraid of knowing—if you knew about the negative news in advance that is going to arrive, it wouldn’t be called “bad news.” Only a sudden negative surprise is truly real bad news. For example, the Clear Act and the Fed rate hikes—those have basically become a sure-thing prediction. When it actually happens, people even feel relieved, because the hanging worry at last has been put to rest. On the other hand, if there were no rate hike and everything just stayed put, that would count as an enormous positive.

Also, bad news has to be judged against the price. In 2021 it surged so high; in 2022 when rate hikes came it fell. In 2022 it fell so badly it was like dog feces. How could 2023’s rate hikes possibly keep causing an endless downward spiral? It’s definitely going to rebound, because most of the market is trading expectations. If the expectation is different in a bad way, price drops early; if the expectation is good, price rallies early. If you could make money just by watching the news, then whenever you see good news you go long, and whenever you see bad news you go short. Even if your grandma shows up, you could still get rich.

Right now, the most troublesome one is Japan’s rate hike. This one is special: it can only cause a drop after the news has already been released. Previously, low—or even 0—interest-rate yen was borrowed in huge amounts to buy risk assets. Only at the moment of the rate hike would others feel they can’t accept it: the yen loans would now require paying interest and eventually repayment. That’s when they would gradually sell assets to get back yen to repay the loans. The last time, on June 16, the day Japan raised rates became the short-term peak for BTC. After that, it smashed down into a new low. I saw some people on June 16 watching Japan’s rate hike for a few minutes—then when they said it had no real impact, they were laughing. I guess they didn’t understand the mechanism of how a Japan rate hike leads to a delayed sell-off. But the further Japan raises rates, the smaller the impact will be. If it drops, just buy the dip. Be prepared to accept some retracement—no big issue $BTC

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