Next, pay attention to the economic data and the specific schedule of meetings in September and October
The September FOMC announced a 25bp rate hike on September 16, the first hike in more than three years.
September 30 20:15 September small non-farm payrolls
September 30 20:30 August core PCE price index
October 2 20:15 September small non-farm payrolls
October 2 20:30 September non-farm employment report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
October 8 02:00 September FOMC meeting minutes (focus on internal dissent regarding the rate hike)
October 14 20:30 September CPI (consumer price index)
October 15 20:30 September PPI, September retail sales, and initial jobless claims
October 27/28 FOMC interest rate meeting (regular meeting, no dot plot)
October 29 02:00 FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference with Powell
October 29 20:30 Preliminary Q3 GDP estimate
October 30 20:30 September core PCE price index
The September rate hike has already been implemented. If subsequent non-farm data continues to weaken and CPI declines, the market will price in “only one more hike in this cycle,” which would be bullish for gold after the bad news is absorbed. If inflation remains sticky and officials lean hawkish, the possibility of raising rates again may resurface, and gold will continue to face pressure.
$XAU
The September FOMC announced a 25bp rate hike on September 16, the first hike in more than three years.
September 30 20:15 September small non-farm payrolls
September 30 20:30 August core PCE price index
October 2 20:15 September small non-farm payrolls
October 2 20:30 September non-farm employment report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings
October 8 02:00 September FOMC meeting minutes (focus on internal dissent regarding the rate hike)
October 14 20:30 September CPI (consumer price index)
October 15 20:30 September PPI, September retail sales, and initial jobless claims
October 27/28 FOMC interest rate meeting (regular meeting, no dot plot)
October 29 02:00 FOMC interest rate decision and the press conference with Powell
October 29 20:30 Preliminary Q3 GDP estimate
October 30 20:30 September core PCE price index
The September rate hike has already been implemented. If subsequent non-farm data continues to weaken and CPI declines, the market will price in “only one more hike in this cycle,” which would be bullish for gold after the bad news is absorbed. If inflation remains sticky and officials lean hawkish, the possibility of raising rates again may resurface, and gold will continue to face pressure.
$XAU
