🎁 The Fed raised the rate by 25 bps on September 16 to 3.75–4.00% — the first time since 2023. On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed to reach 60 votes in the Senate: 49 in favor, 50 against. This is a procedural delay: the bill passed the relevant committee in May 2026. BTC is holding at $78–79K; on September 17, ETFs received $159 million in inflows, the Fear & Greed Index is 52 (neutral).
If ETF inflows persist and the Fed takes a pause — $88–95K. On consolidation — $80–84K. If the Fed’s rhetoric turns hawkish and there are outflows — $70–72K.
Cautious idea: if $75K holds and price reclaims above $78–79K, a short-term long targeting $81.6K (365-day EMA) with a stop below $74K looks reasonable. This is a rebound trade, not a bet on upside.
Risks: 16 of 18 dot-plot participants expect another hike by year-end; 10-year Treasury yields are above 5% — the highest since 2007; uncertainty around the CLARITY Act remains; BTC is down ~13% since the start of the year and ~39% below the all-time high of $126K.
The market held where it should have fallen — that’s a strong signal. But “held” doesn’t mean “will fly.” A long from $75K is reasonable. A long on everything — no.
Not investment advice.
$BTC
If ETF inflows persist and the Fed takes a pause — $88–95K. On consolidation — $80–84K. If the Fed’s rhetoric turns hawkish and there are outflows — $70–72K.
Cautious idea: if $75K holds and price reclaims above $78–79K, a short-term long targeting $81.6K (365-day EMA) with a stop below $74K looks reasonable. This is a rebound trade, not a bet on upside.
Risks: 16 of 18 dot-plot participants expect another hike by year-end; 10-year Treasury yields are above 5% — the highest since 2007; uncertainty around the CLARITY Act remains; BTC is down ~13% since the start of the year and ~39% below the all-time high of $126K.
The market held where it should have fallen — that’s a strong signal. But “held” doesn’t mean “will fly.” A long from $75K is reasonable. A long on everything — no.
Not investment advice.
$BTC
