6.7, this threshold has not been touched since after 2023. Today, both onshore and offshore rates broke through at the same time.
Exchange rates are the most honest thing among all prices. They don’t listen to spin—they only recognize the bid-ask spread and settlement of foreign exchange. When the RMB strengthens, it means two things are happening simultaneously: first, external USD is no longer as tight, and second, the willingness to convert/export foreign exchange inside the country is returning. The former is the water level dropping; the latter is the water flowing back.
But appreciation is never just good news. In the ledgers of export companies, every 1-percentage-point rise erodes profits by another layer; for small and medium manufacturers doing foreign trade, they rely on a few points of gross margin—when exchange rates move, it can mean a year of work goes to waste. That’s also why people in the industry say, “appreciate first, then stabilize.” Half of it is comfort.
So don’t rush to read appreciation as a trend. What matters is whether this round of exchange settlement can be sustained: if companies start to slow down their FX settlement near 7.0, then this is a repair, not a reversal.
Scan the QR code below👇 to join the group. In the group, we track—every week—the changes in RMB and USD liquidity.
#人民币 #汇率 #宏观
Exchange rates are the most honest thing among all prices. They don’t listen to spin—they only recognize the bid-ask spread and settlement of foreign exchange. When the RMB strengthens, it means two things are happening simultaneously: first, external USD is no longer as tight, and second, the willingness to convert/export foreign exchange inside the country is returning. The former is the water level dropping; the latter is the water flowing back.
But appreciation is never just good news. In the ledgers of export companies, every 1-percentage-point rise erodes profits by another layer; for small and medium manufacturers doing foreign trade, they rely on a few points of gross margin—when exchange rates move, it can mean a year of work goes to waste. That’s also why people in the industry say, “appreciate first, then stabilize.” Half of it is comfort.
So don’t rush to read appreciation as a trend. What matters is whether this round of exchange settlement can be sustained: if companies start to slow down their FX settlement near 7.0, then this is a repair, not a reversal.
Scan the QR code below👇 to join the group. In the group, we track—every week—the changes in RMB and USD liquidity.
#人民币 #汇率 #宏观
