The outcome of this event is unlikely. Based on available information, the odds that the United States will acquire Greenland before 2027 are assessed as very low, while the probability of a forcible seizure is approaching zero.

📊 Why the outcome is unlikely

· No agreement between the parties: Greenland and Denmark firmly state that the island is “not for sale.” Negotiations are ongoing between the parties (in the format of a working group), but even Trump himself admits that the process is dragging on.

· Moved away from the use-of-force scenario: The US administration backed away from the direct threat of using military force because this idea initially lacked support from Congress and the military.

· Geopolitical support from Denmark: The EU and other countries are directing investments to Greenland and opening consulates to signal their interests and support Denmark’s sovereignty.

💡 Additional context

Although Trump himself publicly stated that he wanted to take control of Greenland by the end of his term in 2029, for the market it looks more like long-term political rhetoric than a realistic plan.

The probability of a deal by the end of 2027 is estimated at about 2%. At the same time, a scenario involving a violent takeover is virtually excluded.