Bearish (short-term)
The current BTC price is approximately $76,500–$78,000. The short-term direction is bearish. If the key resistance level at $78,000 is not reclaimed, downward pressure will further increase.
Key bearish rationale
① Clear suppression at a key resistance level
The 4-hour chart MACD forms a dead cross, confirming the bearish signal. The EMA50 resistance zone is around $77,600, creating immediate pressure. Analyst Charles Edwards has issued a clear warning: Bitcoin must close above $78,000 on a weekly basis, otherwise it will face accelerated selling. The EMA200 support is around $74,500.
② Inflows have stalled; ETFs have flipped from net inflows to net outflows
Glassnode data shows that after 27 consecutive days of increases, Bitcoin’s realized market cap for the first time turned down. After spot BTC ETFs pulled in nearly $1 billion at the beginning of the month, they turned into net outflows of about $334 million from September 8 to 14. Although the ETFs briefly saw a return of $159 million on September 17, overall liquidity over the past three days remains weak.
③ Demand on-chain shows weakness
Bitcoin’s current price is slightly below the average cost basis (about $767,000) of active investors, and it closed for the first time on September 15 at a price below that level. If the closing price falls below this level again, the next support would be around the average cost basis of short-term holders at about $713,000, with support further down in the $62,000–$65,000 range.
④ Macroeconomic liquidity continues to tighten
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The dot plot indicates that 16 of the 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike within the year. In the derivatives market, the price of put options has continued to stay above that of call options, and demand for hedging downside risk is clearly stronger than bets on a rebound.
Overall assessment
Bearish in the short term. Resistance is $78,000, and support is $71,300. If the weekly close fails to reclaim $78,000, downside risk will be significantly amplified. If it breaks below $71,300, the $62,000–$65,000 range will be the next key support zone.$BTC
