The coming “bear market” may be unimaginably difficult, but the cycle logic behind Bitcoin’s four-year halving remains unchanged. The halving was completed on April 20, 2024. Historical market patterns: the 18th month after the halving marks a local peak; afterward, prices continue to fall for 12 months until reaching the bottom of the bear market. October 2025 corresponds to the 18th month after the halving—this cycle’s high will be $126,200, followed by a one-year downward move. It’s expected to bottom on October 6, 2026. The bottom will need repeated consolidation; both late 2026 and early 2027 may be suitable times to position. The bottom is estimated to be in the range of $30,000–$60,000. Looking back at the previous cycle: from June 2021’s $69,000 to January 2022’s $15,500, the drop was 77%. Applying that pullback rate, $126,200 would fall 77%, to roughly $29,000 (about $30,000) as the key bottom. In extreme cases, it could break below $30,000. A heavy entry position needs to satisfy all of the following at the same time: the time is in October 2026, the coin price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index is around 10. Once all conditions are met, the probability of profits for a heavy position is high. Hold through 2029, and sell when the holding value reaches $150,000–$250,000. By the end of 2026, the market will be saturated with all kinds of negative narratives—Bitcoin bubble death, hashpower attacks, and more—that will be widely circulated. Everyone in the market will be bearish, much like how many people today find it hard to imagine a bull market arriving. In the last bear market, Bitcoin fell to $15,500 and broke below the $20,000 all-time high from February 2017. At that time, fear filled my mind, yet I still believed in a later breakout above $100,000. This time the high is $126,200, matching expectations; it didn’t reach $150,000. This cycle’s bull market was an 8x move. In summary, by the end of 2026, it’s suitable to build a heavy Bitcoin position.