The destructive power of Big Bear City will exceed everyone’s imagination, but the four-year halving cycle logic of Bitcoin remains unchanged. The halving was completed on 2024‑04‑20. The bull market peak appeared in the 18th month after the halving, followed by 12 months of decline, eventually reaching the bottom of the bear market. October 2025 is the 18th month after the halving. The high point of this cycle is $126,200, after which a one-year downward move begins. It is estimated that the bottom of this bear market will be reached around 2026‑10‑06. The bottom will not rebound immediately; instead, there will be ongoing consolidation as the market digests the positions. From late 2026 to early 2027 will be the time to set up. The expected price range is $30,000–$60,000. Replaying the previous cycle: the peak in June 2021 was $69,000, which then fell to a low of $15,500 in January 2022—a maximum drawdown of 77%. Applying the same level of drawdown, $126,200 falling by 77% would land around $29,000. $30,000 is a psychological and technical bottom; in extreme conditions, there is a possibility of breaking below $30,000. To bottom-fish with a heavily concentrated position, three conditions must all be met at the same time: the time is after October 2026, the price is within the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index is around 10. Once all are satisfied, the win rate of a heavy-position bet is very high. If you hold until 2029, the target is to sell into the $150,000–$250,000 range. By the end of 2026, the market will be flooded with all kinds of negative rumor narratives—Bitcoin’s death, an alleged mining power (hashrate) crisis—spreading everywhere. The whole market is bearish, as many people today cannot understand the arrival of the bull market. In the last bear market, when the coin price dropped to $15,500—breaking below the $20,000 level seen in February 2017—I felt extreme fear in my heart, but I still judged that it would eventually stand above $100,000. In this cycle, the highest price was $126,200, which matches expectations, but it didn’t reach $150,000. This bull market produced 8x gains. So, late 2026 is the timing to build a heavy Bitcoin position.