The coming “Big Bear” cycle will exceed most people’s imagination, but the four-year halving cycle framework will not fail. On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin completed its halving; historical price action confirms: the market peaks 18 months after the halving, followed by a 12-month decline that bottoms out. October 2025 is the 18th month after the halving. This bull cycle’s top will be $126,200, after which a full year of decline begins. Time-wise, the cycle’s lowest point is expected on October 6, 2026. The bottom will go through a long period of sideways consolidation; you can position for entry at the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. The expected bottom range is $30,000–$60,000. For reference from the previous bull-bear cycle: price fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a drawdown of 77%. Using the same logic: $126,200 × (1 − 77%) ≈ $29,000; around $30,000 is an important downside line. In extreme conditions, price could break below $30,000. To make a major entry, you need to satisfy three conditions at the same time: after October 2026, the BTC price is in the $30,000–$60,000 range, and the fear index stays around 10. When all three conditions are met together, the probability of high returns with heavy allocation is very high—hold your coins through 2029, then take profit and exit in the $150,000–$250,000 range. By the end of 2026, the market will be surrounded by all kinds of pessimistic news: talk of Bitcoin’s demise, and claims of hashrate attacks becoming widespread. The market will be generally bearish—just like now, many people find it hard to imagine a bull market. In the previous bear market, when price dropped to $15,500—breaking below the February 2017 high of $20,000—I was deeply frightened, yet still believed the next move would break above $100,000. In this cycle, the highest reached was $126,200, matching expectations; it did not push to $150,000. This bull market’s gain was about 8x. Therefore, by the end of 2026, it is suitable to build a heavy position in Bitcoin.