#日本央行加息至31年高位
The Bank of Japan really hiked rates! 1.25%, the highest in 31 years! But what’s the reaction in the crypto market… something’s off!
Brothers, on September 18, the Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points with a 7-2 vote. The policy rate was raised from 1.00% to 1.25%, hitting the highest level in 31 years since 1995. Just 3 months after June—this is the shortest rate-hike interval since 1990.
On paper, this should be a major bearish signal for crypto, right?
The yen carry trade—borrowing low-interest yen and buying high-yield assets, including Bitcoin. Once Japan hikes rates and the yen strengthens, carry-trade profits shrink, and investors are forced to close positions and repay debts—selling Bitcoin in the process. Back in August 2024, a sudden surge in the yen triggered global deleveraging, and BTC plunged more than 30% in a week.
But this time, BTC didn’t crash!
After the decision was announced, the USD/JPY actually spiked in the short term, up 0.4% to 156.56, while the yen didn’t rise—it weakened instead. What does that mean? The market had already priced in the rate-hike expectations. Once the “shoe drops,” the pressure is actually released.
Also, in the press conference, Ueda Kazuo and Amamiya didn’t provide a clear path for further rate hikes. The market is more focused on whether there will be another move later this year.
But I need to pour some cold water—don’t get too excited yet!
The Bank of Japan clearly said it expects the CPI growth to accelerate markedly in the second half of fiscal year 2026, rising to above 2%. The risk of inflation overshooting is real. A former BOJ official, Isao Watanabe, warned that the benchmark interest rate could ultimately rise above 2%. If the yen appreciates rapidly from 156, the carry-trade unwind wave could return at any moment.
I’m holding my spot positions and haven’t moved, but should I add here? I’ll wait.
The rate hike is in, but the yen hasn’t strengthened yet—risk hasn’t been fully released. Let’s wait for the yen exchange rate to stabilize, then see how the U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential plays out, and decide the next step. If you rush in now and the yen suddenly surges, you’re catching a falling knife.
Brothers, do you think this rate hike is “bad news fully priced in” or “calm before the storm”? Argue it out in the comments!
The Bank of Japan really hiked rates! 1.25%, the highest in 31 years! But what’s the reaction in the crypto market… something’s off!
Brothers, on September 18, the Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points with a 7-2 vote. The policy rate was raised from 1.00% to 1.25%, hitting the highest level in 31 years since 1995. Just 3 months after June—this is the shortest rate-hike interval since 1990.
On paper, this should be a major bearish signal for crypto, right?
The yen carry trade—borrowing low-interest yen and buying high-yield assets, including Bitcoin. Once Japan hikes rates and the yen strengthens, carry-trade profits shrink, and investors are forced to close positions and repay debts—selling Bitcoin in the process. Back in August 2024, a sudden surge in the yen triggered global deleveraging, and BTC plunged more than 30% in a week.
But this time, BTC didn’t crash!
After the decision was announced, the USD/JPY actually spiked in the short term, up 0.4% to 156.56, while the yen didn’t rise—it weakened instead. What does that mean? The market had already priced in the rate-hike expectations. Once the “shoe drops,” the pressure is actually released.
Also, in the press conference, Ueda Kazuo and Amamiya didn’t provide a clear path for further rate hikes. The market is more focused on whether there will be another move later this year.
But I need to pour some cold water—don’t get too excited yet!
The Bank of Japan clearly said it expects the CPI growth to accelerate markedly in the second half of fiscal year 2026, rising to above 2%. The risk of inflation overshooting is real. A former BOJ official, Isao Watanabe, warned that the benchmark interest rate could ultimately rise above 2%. If the yen appreciates rapidly from 156, the carry-trade unwind wave could return at any moment.
I’m holding my spot positions and haven’t moved, but should I add here? I’ll wait.
The rate hike is in, but the yen hasn’t strengthened yet—risk hasn’t been fully released. Let’s wait for the yen exchange rate to stabilize, then see how the U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential plays out, and decide the next step. If you rush in now and the yen suddenly surges, you’re catching a falling knife.
Brothers, do you think this rate hike is “bad news fully priced in” or “calm before the storm”? Argue it out in the comments!