In a day, the benchmark coking coal futures contract broke below 1,500 yuan, and the three near-month contracts simply stayed pinned to the daily limit-down boards. As soon as the supply-guarantee policy was announced, prices reversed first.
It’s the same in the market too: they say a truckload of vegetables is coming tomorrow, so today’s vegetable prices soften first. What’s falling isn’t just how much coal is available right now—it’s what people believe about future coal supply. Expectations move faster than spot prices.
The kind of account that’s based on expectations is the easiest to miscalculate. Policies can make people believe supply will loosen, but they can’t rein in the demand side—whether steel mills start operating or whether the real-estate sector will resume construction isn’t something you can decide just by issuing a document. Prices have already priced in the “looser supply” half, while the other half—demand—hasn’t been counted yet.
So whether this move is a “paper drop” or a real one, you only need to watch one number: port coking coal inventory. If inventory continues to pile up, it means supply really has loosened; if prices fall but inventory doesn’t rise, then it’s sentiment that has spoken first.
#大宗商品 #焦煤 #政策
It’s the same in the market too: they say a truckload of vegetables is coming tomorrow, so today’s vegetable prices soften first. What’s falling isn’t just how much coal is available right now—it’s what people believe about future coal supply. Expectations move faster than spot prices.
The kind of account that’s based on expectations is the easiest to miscalculate. Policies can make people believe supply will loosen, but they can’t rein in the demand side—whether steel mills start operating or whether the real-estate sector will resume construction isn’t something you can decide just by issuing a document. Prices have already priced in the “looser supply” half, while the other half—demand—hasn’t been counted yet.
So whether this move is a “paper drop” or a real one, you only need to watch one number: port coking coal inventory. If inventory continues to pile up, it means supply really has loosened; if prices fall but inventory doesn’t rise, then it’s sentiment that has spoken first.
#大宗商品 #焦煤 #政策
