Rate hike lands, crypto doesn’t fall but rises
Not because the hike is good news—it's because the bad news has already been priced in and run its course
① Another 25bp, with a 90% probability already beforehand
② The dot plot says: “roughly one more time within the year and then it stops”
Not a new round of continuous tightening
③ The real clearing happens the day before the decision
CLARITY is gone + U.S. Treasury yields break above 5% + long liquidations
The market trades the path, not the numbers
Next hike may still come
Only below 75,000 is this round of correction considered a failure
Not because the hike is good news—it's because the bad news has already been priced in and run its course
① Another 25bp, with a 90% probability already beforehand
② The dot plot says: “roughly one more time within the year and then it stops”
Not a new round of continuous tightening
③ The real clearing happens the day before the decision
CLARITY is gone + U.S. Treasury yields break above 5% + long liquidations
The market trades the path, not the numbers
Next hike may still come
Only below 75,000 is this round of correction considered a failure