BTC IS RECOVERING—BUT $78,150 IS THE NEXT TEST THAT ACTUALLY MATTERS.
$BTC has recovered strongly from the recent ~$75K sweep and is now trading back above $77.6K on H4. The immediate objective is clear: stay glued to the $78,150 resistance and keep applying pressure until the market shows whether supply can absorb the recovery.
Wyckoff: the move from the ~$75K area resembles a potential recovery after a Secondary Test, but there is not enough evidence yet to call this renewed accumulation. The real confirmation comes from how price behaves as it returns into overhead supply.
SMC: the rebound has repaired short-term structure, but BTC is approaching the first meaningful resistance. $78,150 is the gateway, while the broader $78.1K–$79.6K supply zone remains the bigger obstacle. Above that, the previous Weak High near $82K becomes increasingly relevant.
🟢 Bullish setup: keep holding the higher-low structure and attack $78,150. An H4 close above it followed by successful acceptance would expose $79K–$79.6K as the next target. Reclaim that supply and the path toward the ~$82K Weak High starts opening.
🔴 Bearish setup: rejection at $78,150 followed by bearish CHoCH/displacement would tell me supply is still controlling the range. Losing the recent recovery structure would put $76K and eventually ~$75K back into focus.
Status: WATCH — PRESSURE $78,150.
The goal right now isn’t to predict $82K.
First, stick to $78,150. Break it. Hold it. Then we talk about the next liquidity target.
$BTC has recovered strongly from the recent ~$75K sweep and is now trading back above $77.6K on H4. The immediate objective is clear: stay glued to the $78,150 resistance and keep applying pressure until the market shows whether supply can absorb the recovery.
Wyckoff: the move from the ~$75K area resembles a potential recovery after a Secondary Test, but there is not enough evidence yet to call this renewed accumulation. The real confirmation comes from how price behaves as it returns into overhead supply.
SMC: the rebound has repaired short-term structure, but BTC is approaching the first meaningful resistance. $78,150 is the gateway, while the broader $78.1K–$79.6K supply zone remains the bigger obstacle. Above that, the previous Weak High near $82K becomes increasingly relevant.
🟢 Bullish setup: keep holding the higher-low structure and attack $78,150. An H4 close above it followed by successful acceptance would expose $79K–$79.6K as the next target. Reclaim that supply and the path toward the ~$82K Weak High starts opening.
🔴 Bearish setup: rejection at $78,150 followed by bearish CHoCH/displacement would tell me supply is still controlling the range. Losing the recent recovery structure would put $76K and eventually ~$75K back into focus.
Status: WATCH — PRESSURE $78,150.
The goal right now isn’t to predict $82K.
First, stick to $78,150. Break it. Hold it. Then we talk about the next liquidity target.
