48 hours: two central banks hike back-to-back, and the crypto market flips green
Yesterday the Fed, today the Bank of Japan—two of the world’s most expensive liquidity pools moved back-to-back.
The Bank of Japan decided today (9/18): the overnight unsecured call rate was raised from “around 1.0%” to “around 1.25%,” with 7 votes for and 2 against, effective 9/24. The deposit facility rate was also lifted to 1.25%, and the basic lending rate to 1.5%. The dissenters—Asada and Sato—gave consistent reasons: excluding fresh food, CPI remains below 2% in the near term, so it’s “not strong,” and it’s not the time to hike. The wording in the decision statement is that potential CPI inflation “has approached 2%,” and it explicitly says it “will continue to raise rates.” On the same day, the USD/JPY weakened in the short term by about 50 points, to 156.65.
Meanwhile, on 9/16, the Fed: a unanimous 12:0 rate hike of 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%.
But the bond market sent an counterintuitive signal: U.S. Treasury yield curve on 9/17—2-year at 4.67% (previous day 4.74%), 10-year at 4.94% (previous day 5.01%), 30-year at 5.29% (previous day 5.35%)—after the hike was priced in, the long end didn’t spike; yields fell across the board.
In crypto, it’s even more direct: $BTC 77483 (24h +1.39%), $ETH 2484 (+1.86%), $BNB 754 (+4.00%), and SOL at 105.45 (+5.80%) surged even harder. Fear & Greed Index is 56—“Greed.” It was neutral yesterday in the mid-50s.
My read (not investment advice):
Bullish take—after the rate hike was delivered, long-end yields actually retraced, suggesting the market is interpreting this round as “catching up to the inflation curve,” not “accelerating tightening.” Top assets are voting with their feet.
Bearish take—total market cap is -0.67% over 24h, and BTC’s share is back to 58%. In other words, only a few leading names are up; alts overall are bleeding. With the Fear & Greed Index at 56 (not extreme), the risk/reward of chasing is not great.
So this looks more like “concentration in the top + short covering,” not a broad return of risk-on sentiment. Key levels: I’m watching BTC support at 76k and resistance at 78k. Manage your own position—DYOR.
Yesterday the Fed, today the Bank of Japan—two of the world’s most expensive liquidity pools moved back-to-back.
The Bank of Japan decided today (9/18): the overnight unsecured call rate was raised from “around 1.0%” to “around 1.25%,” with 7 votes for and 2 against, effective 9/24. The deposit facility rate was also lifted to 1.25%, and the basic lending rate to 1.5%. The dissenters—Asada and Sato—gave consistent reasons: excluding fresh food, CPI remains below 2% in the near term, so it’s “not strong,” and it’s not the time to hike. The wording in the decision statement is that potential CPI inflation “has approached 2%,” and it explicitly says it “will continue to raise rates.” On the same day, the USD/JPY weakened in the short term by about 50 points, to 156.65.
Meanwhile, on 9/16, the Fed: a unanimous 12:0 rate hike of 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%.
But the bond market sent an counterintuitive signal: U.S. Treasury yield curve on 9/17—2-year at 4.67% (previous day 4.74%), 10-year at 4.94% (previous day 5.01%), 30-year at 5.29% (previous day 5.35%)—after the hike was priced in, the long end didn’t spike; yields fell across the board.
In crypto, it’s even more direct: $BTC 77483 (24h +1.39%), $ETH 2484 (+1.86%), $BNB 754 (+4.00%), and SOL at 105.45 (+5.80%) surged even harder. Fear & Greed Index is 56—“Greed.” It was neutral yesterday in the mid-50s.
My read (not investment advice):
Bullish take—after the rate hike was delivered, long-end yields actually retraced, suggesting the market is interpreting this round as “catching up to the inflation curve,” not “accelerating tightening.” Top assets are voting with their feet.
Bearish take—total market cap is -0.67% over 24h, and BTC’s share is back to 58%. In other words, only a few leading names are up; alts overall are bleeding. With the Fear & Greed Index at 56 (not extreme), the risk/reward of chasing is not great.
So this looks more like “concentration in the top + short covering,” not a broad return of risk-on sentiment. Key levels: I’m watching BTC support at 76k and resistance at 78k. Manage your own position—DYOR.