Judging by the current situation, the chances of signing the Clarity Act into law in 2026 look very low. It seems the market has already priced in a scenario in which this will not happen.

📉 Why the odds are slim

· Failure of the key vote: In mid-September, the Senate was unable to overcome the procedural hurdle (it required 60 votes, and only 49 were in favor). This effectively halted the document’s progress .

· Position of major players: Analysts at JPMorgan even claim that the adoption of the law this year is highly unlikely. Michael Saylor also said that the focus is shifting from the bill to the actions of regulators.

· Limited time: By the end of the year, Congress has few working days left due to the upcoming midterm elections. Getting such a large-scale law agreed upon and passed by the end of December is practically impossible.

⏳ What happens next

The most likely scenario seems to be placing all hopes on the actions of the SEC and CFTC, which are already preparing their own regulatory rules. While many experts also don’t rule out the possibility that the law could return to the agenda after the “lame duck” period following the elections, for now it’s too early to talk about its imminent signing.

Against this backdrop, investors’ attention is most likely to be focused on regulatory decisions and SEC statements.