Binance Square US Stock Daily｜9/18 U.S. Market Focus: After the Fed Hike, Tech Stocks First Repaired—Interest Rates Remain the Stress Test
Today’s U.S. stock market main theme isn’t just chasing gains; it’s a “risk-appetite repair after the rate hike is priced in.” The latest market snapshot: S&P 500 around 7,637.76, up 0.61% from the prior trading day; Nasdaq 100 around 29,446.98, up 1.18%; Dow around 51,778.04, down 0.55%. On the futures side, Nasdaq 100 was once stronger, up about 2.25%. VIX has fallen to 15.44, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.947%. The crypto market is warming in parallel: BTC around 77,540 USDT, +1.42% over 24h; ETH around 2,485 USDT, +1.79% over 24h.
First, the Fed is still the core variable. The Fed’s official statement showed that the FOMC voted to raise rates by 25 bps, 12 to 0, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. The rationale is that economic activity remains solid and inflation is still relatively high. Markets briefly exhaled because uncertainty has been resolved; however, this isn’t a sign of easing. It’s more like “fighting inflation still comes first.” Reuters also noted that traders have revised up the probability of another rate hike in October to around 51%.
Second, macro data temporarily supports the soft-landing narrative. Reuters reported that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 196K, suggesting the labor market still has resilience. This has two sides for equities: fundamentals aren’t bad, which supports earnings expectations; but if the labor market is too strong, it also gives the Fed more room to maintain a hawkish stance.
Third, tech and AI have once again become the direction for capital probing. Large-cap tech shares rebounded, and the cloud and AI infrastructure themes are gaining back attention; but the market is also seeing differentiation—some neocloud and energy storage-related stocks are under pressure. This reminds us: the market is willing to buy the AI story, but it’s becoming more selective now. Only companies that can turn AI investments into revenue, cash flow, and visible orders are more likely to receive a valuation premium.
Fourth, oil prices and long-dated bond yields are two brakes on risk appetite. WTI is around 100.99—down from the prior level, but still elevated. If energy again pushes up inflation expectations, tech stock valuations and crypto assets will likely face pressure together.
Implications for crypto: BTC and ETH today are moving with the Nasdaq and risk assets’ recovery, but this looks more like a liquidity and sentiment rebound rather than a fully independent trend. My view: short-term risk appetite has improved, but as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 5% and the probability of another Fed hike hasn’t dropped, it’s not advisable to chase gains excessively. Focus first on whether the Nasdaq 100 can sustain its strength and whether ETH can continue outperforming BTC.
Today’s U.S. stock market main theme isn’t just chasing gains; it’s a “risk-appetite repair after the rate hike is priced in.” The latest market snapshot: S&P 500 around 7,637.76, up 0.61% from the prior trading day; Nasdaq 100 around 29,446.98, up 1.18%; Dow around 51,778.04, down 0.55%. On the futures side, Nasdaq 100 was once stronger, up about 2.25%. VIX has fallen to 15.44, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 4.947%. The crypto market is warming in parallel: BTC around 77,540 USDT, +1.42% over 24h; ETH around 2,485 USDT, +1.79% over 24h.
First, the Fed is still the core variable. The Fed’s official statement showed that the FOMC voted to raise rates by 25 bps, 12 to 0, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. The rationale is that economic activity remains solid and inflation is still relatively high. Markets briefly exhaled because uncertainty has been resolved; however, this isn’t a sign of easing. It’s more like “fighting inflation still comes first.” Reuters also noted that traders have revised up the probability of another rate hike in October to around 51%.
Second, macro data temporarily supports the soft-landing narrative. Reuters reported that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 196K, suggesting the labor market still has resilience. This has two sides for equities: fundamentals aren’t bad, which supports earnings expectations; but if the labor market is too strong, it also gives the Fed more room to maintain a hawkish stance.
Third, tech and AI have once again become the direction for capital probing. Large-cap tech shares rebounded, and the cloud and AI infrastructure themes are gaining back attention; but the market is also seeing differentiation—some neocloud and energy storage-related stocks are under pressure. This reminds us: the market is willing to buy the AI story, but it’s becoming more selective now. Only companies that can turn AI investments into revenue, cash flow, and visible orders are more likely to receive a valuation premium.
Fourth, oil prices and long-dated bond yields are two brakes on risk appetite. WTI is around 100.99—down from the prior level, but still elevated. If energy again pushes up inflation expectations, tech stock valuations and crypto assets will likely face pressure together.
Implications for crypto: BTC and ETH today are moving with the Nasdaq and risk assets’ recovery, but this looks more like a liquidity and sentiment rebound rather than a fully independent trend. My view: short-term risk appetite has improved, but as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays near 5% and the probability of another Fed hike hasn’t dropped, it’s not advisable to chase gains excessively. Focus first on whether the Nasdaq 100 can sustain its strength and whether ETH can continue outperforming BTC.