Based on the current data, December 2026 appears to be the most likely release date for Gemini 4. This is the date the market values most highly—about 86%.

📅 Timeline outlook

· November 30, 2026: 86% — the market considers this timeline the most realistic (forecasts align with analysts’ expectations: November–December).

· October 31, 2026: 79% — also a very high figure, but slightly less likely than December.

· September 30, 2026: 8% — this is practically ruled out, since Google has confirmed that training the model is still in the early stages.

💡 Context and what it means

· Official status: Google has confirmed that Gemini 4 is «the most ambitious stage of pretraining in history», and enormous computing resources are being invested in it.

· Reason for the delay: The release is expected closer to the end of the year, since competing at the cutting edge requires much larger foundational models.

· Risks: Timelines may shift, as the release of Gemini 3.5 Pro has already been postponed, which reduces confidence in meeting the schedule precisely.