The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points—the first time in more than three years.

BTC jumped from 751,000 to 775,000. U.S. stocks first plunged, then recovered. The market let out a sigh of relief—“The shoe has dropped; the bad news is out.”

But take a close look at the dot plot.

18 officials—16 of them think there will be another hike this year.

But the market is still betting, “This is the final time.”

This crack is the biggest trading signal right now.

CME data: the probability of a rate hike in October is 55.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged in December is only 12.6%.

Translate this: The market is betting that there will be one more rate hike in October, and then it will be over.

The median interest rates for 2026 and 2027 are both 4.1%, only 25 basis points higher than today.

The market interpretation is: “the tightening cycle is about to end.”

So BTC dares to bounce after a rate hike. So risk assets still dare to stay on the trading floor.

Because everyone is betting: Waller is getting soft—that this is the last time.

But the dot plot says something entirely different.

In June, of the 18 officials, 8 thought no more hikes were needed this year.

In September? Zero people.

From 8 to 0. Hawkish views have been completely cleared out.

And the number of people who think 75 basis points of cumulative hikes are needed rose from 1 to 4.

This isn’t a mosaic chart that says “only this time.” This is hawks expanding their ranks.

Earlier, Goldman Sachs said: after September, it ends—this tightening cycle is drawn to a close.

Now Goldman Sachs says: another 25 basis points to come in October.

Three reasons—each one is tougher than the last:

First, the dot plot: most officials expect more hikes within the year.

Second, the neutral rate outlook rose from 3.06% to 3.25%. If the neutral rate is revised upward, it means current rates aren’t tight enough yet.

Third, Waller’s exact words—he called this hike “removing a dose of accommodation.”

Waller was even more blunt at the press conference:

“Broad financial conditions still can’t be considered sufficiently restrictive.”

Meaning: the current level of rates still isn’t high.

Put it in plain language: we haven’t even started actually tightening yet.

You think rate hikes are the endpoint— the Fed tells you this is just the warm-up.

The market’s pricing logic is built on an assumption—that Waller will show leniency. But Waller smashed that assumption with the words “remove a dose of accommodation.”

BTC is now around $77,000, up 20% over the past 30 days.

In this price, the optimistic expectation that “the rate-hike cycle is about to end” has already been priced in.

What if another rate hike in October actually happens?

A $77,000 BTC isn’t priced at “a 4% rate.” It’s priced at “a 4% rate—then that’s where it ends.”

Once this assumption is broken, it’s not about whether it drops—it’s about repricing everything.

Grayscale’s view is: this round of hikes is a “mid-course adjustment,” not a reversal of the cycle.

But when Grayscale said this, the market still hadn’t priced in an October rate hike.

BlackRock said something worth pondering: the market may be over-interpreting Waller’s wording, and it needs to distinguish between “maintaining the Fed’s credibility” and “initiating a continuous rate-hike cycle.”

The problem is—if there’s no need for a continuing rate-hike cycle, why pass it unanimously? Why are there zero remaining doves?

Markets are betting that Waller is softening his stance.

But what Waller said was “remove a dose of accommodation”—

The subtext of that sentence is that accommodation still hasn’t been removed enough.