【Resolution Result】

The U.S. Federal Reserve unanimously approved a rate hike of one quarter point at its FOMC meeting on September 16. The target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Ahead of the meeting, both the CME FedWatch and a Reuters survey of economists put the probability at over 85%. However, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket priced in less than fifty percent, creating a nearly two-fold discrepancy between the two data sources; the final outcome aligned with traditional interest-rate futures. In a rare move, Chair Waller did not update the dot plot immediately after the meeting. The market interpreted this as the Fed deliberately avoiding a clear signal about whether another rate hike would occur before year-end. At the moment the decision was released, \u003cc-10/\u003e briefly dipped toward the $75,000 level, but within a few hours it quickly regained the lost ground and returned above $76,600. Over the next 24 hours, the price increase turned positive, roughly between +0.5% and +0.9%, suggesting that the rate hike itself did not exceed what the market had priced in. The real surprise was instead that “there was no dot plot.”

【Divergence in capital flows】

The capital flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs are more worth watching than the BTC price itself. The second-largest daily net outflow since September occurred on this day: BTC ETF outflows of about $296 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for $144 million. On the same day, $ETH ETF outflows totaled about $224 million, the largest single-day outflow since September; again, BlackRock leads. This is not the usual market rotation of “BTC turning into ETH.” Instead, it reflects the simultaneous withdrawal of institutional funds from two major mainstream assets, with the directions aligned and the scale similar. It indicates institutions’ overall risk-avoidance sentiment toward the interest-rate environment after rate hikes—not differing opinions about a single asset.

【Privacy coins surge against the trend】

Amid cautious market sentiment, $ZEC it moved in the exact opposite direction: the past 24 hours saw gains of over 20% and a new all-time high. The catalyst was the disclosure that crypto venture capital firm Paradigm holds positions. Unlike BTC and ETH, whose drivers are macro funds withdrawing, this time the momentum comes from a specific piece of information about one institution’s holdings, together with the privacy-coin narrative. This shows the market’s divergence this time is not only in whether assets rise or fall, but also in what drives them—some assets follow the interest-rate environment, while others follow their own narrative line, with both happening at the same time.

【Key points to watch next】

There are no dot-plot projections to refer to, meaning the market has lower visibility than usual on whether the Fed will raise rates again before year-end. Over the next few weeks, incoming inflation and employment data could have an outsized marginal impact on interest-rate expectations. Whether ETF flows will continue today’s synchronized outflows—or return to the net-inflow levels seen in early September—is a key indicator for tracking institutional funding sentiment. As for assets like ZEC, which are driven by specific narratives rather than the broader macro environment, whether the uptrend can sustain also depends on whether the narrative itself has further developments to support it—not just on overall market mood.