Starting today, I will continuously share here my own trading philosophy and a complete trading system. I refuse emotionally-driven trading, and I refuse prediction-style trading that guesses market tops or bottoms.
I am a trend trader. I studied under a fund manager from a private fund. My core approach relies on moving averages to trade trends. I only trade market situations that I can understand. I put the market’s uncertainty, human nature, and mindset into an execution framework that has rules, filtering, and risk control.
⚠️ Risk warning: The following is purely for technical learning purposes and does not constitute any investment advice. The market involves risks. When trading, be sure to manage position sizing and set stop-losses.
I. My underlying trading mindset (first build the thinking, then talk about the techniques): observe the turning points and watch for signs. Don’t make subjective assumptions; wait for signal confirmation—don’t gamble on the outcome early.
1 The market is not something you predict. You predict the future—but the future is never predictable.
Don’t pre-judge, “It will definitely go up here” or “It will definitely go down here.” Only act after price, moving averages, and MACD all provide confirming signals. If there is no confirmation, just observe and do not enter.
2 Indicators have shortcomings. MACD going sideways can fail and has lag; moving averages can repeatedly sweep stops during choppy, range-bound markets. When the market is sideways, both become ineffective—you can’t open positions based on a single indicator. Each technical tool has its own drawbacks. It’s like there are no perfect people in the world; there are no perfect trading techniques.
3 Reject universal rules: all technical applications must be used together with the direction of the trend, the position, and the level/degree/structure.
4 Most important: prioritize the level/degree. Determine direction on the larger timeframe; find entry points on the smaller timeframe. Do the bigger work with the larger timeframe and the smaller work with the smaller timeframe.
The nine-character mantra: look at the bigger picture, observe the turning point, judge highs and lows. Never use smaller-timeframe signals to fight against the larger-timeframe trend. Never rely solely on indicators to judge longs vs. shorts.
5 For a 5-minute timeframe going sideways, you must not participate under any circumstances—stay in a completely flat position. For larger-timeframe sideways action, participate only at critical high/low threshold points; otherwise, give up. When the market is range-bound and oscillating, it’s like two armies stalemated—long and short forces become chaotic and indicators repeatedly produce false signals. If you can’t see clearly, stay flat. Not every segment of the market deserves participation. Staying flat is not wasting opportunities. Frequent trading only makes it look like you’re working hard—making no losses is also a kind of win!
II. Those who follow the larger trend thrive; those who fight the larger trend perish—watch the larger trend; don’t go against objective trends
Level one of the system: moving averages—determine the major trend (the filter that decides whether I only do longs or only do shorts)
Moving averages are my top priority. Determine the long-term bullish trend on the larger timeframe (only look for long opportunities; avoid all shorting).
Determine a bearish trend (only look for shorting opportunities; avoid all long setups)
Moving average usage—iron rules
Use the long-term moving averages on the larger timeframe to define the direction as the trend line; use the short-term moving averages on the smaller timeframe as the execution line.
Moving averages are my main body. Combined with structure, location, and trend—assisted by naked candlesticks, MACD, and volume—this is the thinking behind the entire system. Build the stability of your trading system!
III. Know when to stop and defend well: first be invincible, then seek victory
Risk control system (the foundation of the trading system). Without risk control, everything is just talk. No risk control means you’re running naked.
Position sizing principles
Error-trading should be the main approach: only add positions moderately when all conditions are met. If the conditions don’t fully match, test with a very small position or don’t trade directly. Never go all-in.
Stop-loss setup
Going long: place the stop-loss below the pattern’s low point, or below the low point in a 2B false breakdown;
Shorting: place the stop-loss above the rebound high point or above the next higher point
A stop-loss trigger means exiting without conditions. Don’t hold through losses, and don’t add to cover losses on a losing position. Never add to a floating loss position. Firmly refuse to hold losing positions.
Position management and stop-loss are the trader’s “defense.”
Whether a trade can be profitable is decided by the market; how much you lose—and whether you can survive—is decided by us.
Even if the pattern is perfectly satisfied, it can still fail. Stop-loss is not admitting a mistake; it’s an orderly retreat on the battlefield to preserve capital strength. Never hold the position in a fight, never add to a losing trade at a floating loss. Don’t put yourself at risk of total destruction of the whole account.
IV. Learn from the past to know what will prosper and what will fail
Refine your mindset, accept uncertainty, reduce emotional trading. The biggest enemies of trading: missing the trade anxiety, fear of missing out, revenge trading, and subjective market interpretation—human arrogance!
1. Post-trade review system (the most important). No matter how much technique you learn, if you don’t review, it’s just talking on paper.
① Trading feel (盘感) isn’t mysticism; it’s a database formed in your brain from massive historical case studies. Without post-trade review, you won’t have trading feel.
Historical experience is extremely valuable. It can help you recognize patterns and see the road ahead; but it can’t be copied and applied directly. Experience must be combined with today’s new objective realities, tested in new practice, then adjusted, developed. Summarize successful experience as well as lessons from failures. Oppose dogmatism (deadly copying old experience), and also oppose narrow empiricism (clinging to fragmentary old experiences) — from Mao’s writings
Historical experience is an important basis for seeing the future clearly, but it cannot replace real-world practice! All history is modern history and also future history—there’s nothing new under the sun!
② Log your trading notes: for every trade, record which rules were triggered for your entry; and which rule(s) you violated when the trade turned into a loss.
Chairman Mao places great importance on summarizing experience. Whether you succeed or fail, you must review. After every battle, you must review: carry forward strengths, overcome weaknesses, then投入 the next round of practice.
Past experience (successful outcomes + failed lessons) is valuable teaching material. Failure is also a teacher; often, mistakes are the precursor to being right. Lessons from setbacks can help people take fewer detours.
How to use experience in the future: you must stick to the principle of “combining real, objective conditions,” test and modify in new practice, and review afterward—this is required coursework for every trader! Learn from the past to know what will prosper and what will fail, but don’t get stuck in outdated thinking. Refuse to be trapped in the old.
Trading is not about making a profit every single time; it’s about building a high-probability, repeatable set of rules—cut losses short, and let profits run with the trend.
After this, I will continuously break down historical market cases here and share my trading philosophy. Keep updating the trading details every day!#BTC走势分析