📰 After the Fed’s rate hike takes effect, US stocks, bonds, and precious metals all start to recover together—but it feels more like “not quite as bad for now,” not the end of tightening. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury finally breaks its nine-day winning streak and falls back below 5%. Oil also drops for the second day in a row, giving overvalued assets a bit of breathing room.
🔥 Oil prices fall mainly because Saudi Arabia is trying to restore about half of the capacity of the attacked oil pipeline and increase supply to Asia. However, the US still plans to keep existing forces in the Middle East through the end of the year, and Trump is also considering whether to expand military action against Iran—so the supply issue hasn’t really disappeared.
💡 AI hardware has become the main driver of this round of repair. Jensen Huang expects Nvidia’s chip sales next year to reach twice this year’s level. The current bottleneck is supply. Amazon has also signed with Generac. Compute expansion has pushed demand toward the power, storage, and financing markets, but some buying could simply be short-covering.
👀 The real trouble is the coming “triple witching” days. The S&P 500 faces negative gamma pressure below 7,625 points, and the CTA model suggests the market could see about $30 billion in selling over the next week. The Bank of Japan has also raised rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995; further guidance will also affect global bond markets.
🤔 Honestly, the first rebound after the rate hike isn’t hard. What’s difficult is getting through settlement and bond volatility. Do you think this time the AI sector can hold steady first, or will the triple witching days push the rebound back down?
#美联储 #美股 #AI芯片 #macro market
🔥 Oil prices fall mainly because Saudi Arabia is trying to restore about half of the capacity of the attacked oil pipeline and increase supply to Asia. However, the US still plans to keep existing forces in the Middle East through the end of the year, and Trump is also considering whether to expand military action against Iran—so the supply issue hasn’t really disappeared.
💡 AI hardware has become the main driver of this round of repair. Jensen Huang expects Nvidia’s chip sales next year to reach twice this year’s level. The current bottleneck is supply. Amazon has also signed with Generac. Compute expansion has pushed demand toward the power, storage, and financing markets, but some buying could simply be short-covering.
👀 The real trouble is the coming “triple witching” days. The S&P 500 faces negative gamma pressure below 7,625 points, and the CTA model suggests the market could see about $30 billion in selling over the next week. The Bank of Japan has also raised rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995; further guidance will also affect global bond markets.
🤔 Honestly, the first rebound after the rate hike isn’t hard. What’s difficult is getting through settlement and bond volatility. Do you think this time the AI sector can hold steady first, or will the triple witching days push the rebound back down?
#美联储 #美股 #AI芯片 #macro market
