$1.1 billion leaves ETFs, yet BTC stays unbothered—this is exactly the signal you should take seriously for a bullish outlook.
Within two days, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows totaled $1.11 billion. Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $450 million, the largest since June 25. The trigger is clear: the Senate failed to advance the “Clarity for Digital Assets Market Act” (CLARITY Act), falling short by about 10 votes. Ethereum ETFs were hit as well, with outflows totaling $366 million over two days. Seven Democratic lawmakers who previously participated in text negotiations flipped their stance to oppose it, instantly cooling market expectations for regulatory rollout.
But what I see isn’t panic—it's opportunity.
First, the price logic. The CLARITY Act stumbling is a real bearish factor, and ETF capital is indeed voting with its feet, exiting by $1.1 billion. Yet after the news, BTC barely slipped—down only from $75,965 by less than 0.1%. After the CoinDesk 20 index fell 4.6% that day, it quickly narrowed, and BTC later recovered above $77,000. “Bad news out, but no sell-off” is textbook evidence of solid bottom positioning—any sellable supply has already been dumped, and there’s nobody left selling from below.
Next, the on-chain structure. Analyst Darkfost points out that BTC has entered a cost-basis battle zone between $71,300 and $79,800. $71,300 is the active-supply cost basis—the average holding cost of actively circulating BTC on-chain—providing support. $79,800 is the invested-capital cost basis; multiple rejections failing to break it create resistance. With the current price around $77,010, it sits in the upper-middle part of the range, suggesting bulls hold pricing power there. Marathon recently bought 1,292 BTC via FalconX (about $98.6 million). Meanwhile, El Salvador has been buying every day for 916 consecutive days and currently holds 7,777 BTC. What the smart money is doing has already been telling you—on the chart.
My view: bullish on BTC in the short term, targeting a test of the $79,800 resistance. If it breaks and holds, the next target is $85,000. But if it falls below the $71,300 cost basis, the narrative flips immediately—strictly cut losses and don’t hold through adverse moves.
For execution: near $77,000, consider entering a small-size long position. Place the stop-loss at $73,500 (below the cost basis). Targets are $79,800 to $85,000, with position sizing capped at within 5% of NAV. This isn’t trying to bottom-fish; it’s following the structure after bearish news is digested. As for ETH, stay cautious—if it breaks below $2,313, Coinglass data indicates it would trigger liquidation of $1.11 billion worth of longs. So ETH long positions need a tighter stop-loss, and I don’t recommend going in with heavy size.
Do you think the CLARITY Act can still pass before the end of this year? Let’s discuss in the comments—this directly determines the direction for Q4.
Follow me: live every night at 21:00 + SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname, no announcement | Not investment advice
Within two days, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows totaled $1.11 billion. Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $450 million, the largest since June 25. The trigger is clear: the Senate failed to advance the “Clarity for Digital Assets Market Act” (CLARITY Act), falling short by about 10 votes. Ethereum ETFs were hit as well, with outflows totaling $366 million over two days. Seven Democratic lawmakers who previously participated in text negotiations flipped their stance to oppose it, instantly cooling market expectations for regulatory rollout.
But what I see isn’t panic—it's opportunity.
First, the price logic. The CLARITY Act stumbling is a real bearish factor, and ETF capital is indeed voting with its feet, exiting by $1.1 billion. Yet after the news, BTC barely slipped—down only from $75,965 by less than 0.1%. After the CoinDesk 20 index fell 4.6% that day, it quickly narrowed, and BTC later recovered above $77,000. “Bad news out, but no sell-off” is textbook evidence of solid bottom positioning—any sellable supply has already been dumped, and there’s nobody left selling from below.
Next, the on-chain structure. Analyst Darkfost points out that BTC has entered a cost-basis battle zone between $71,300 and $79,800. $71,300 is the active-supply cost basis—the average holding cost of actively circulating BTC on-chain—providing support. $79,800 is the invested-capital cost basis; multiple rejections failing to break it create resistance. With the current price around $77,010, it sits in the upper-middle part of the range, suggesting bulls hold pricing power there. Marathon recently bought 1,292 BTC via FalconX (about $98.6 million). Meanwhile, El Salvador has been buying every day for 916 consecutive days and currently holds 7,777 BTC. What the smart money is doing has already been telling you—on the chart.
My view: bullish on BTC in the short term, targeting a test of the $79,800 resistance. If it breaks and holds, the next target is $85,000. But if it falls below the $71,300 cost basis, the narrative flips immediately—strictly cut losses and don’t hold through adverse moves.
For execution: near $77,000, consider entering a small-size long position. Place the stop-loss at $73,500 (below the cost basis). Targets are $79,800 to $85,000, with position sizing capped at within 5% of NAV. This isn’t trying to bottom-fish; it’s following the structure after bearish news is digested. As for ETH, stay cautious—if it breaks below $2,313, Coinglass data indicates it would trigger liquidation of $1.11 billion worth of longs. So ETH long positions need a tighter stop-loss, and I don’t recommend going in with heavy size.
Do you think the CLARITY Act can still pass before the end of this year? Let’s discuss in the comments—this directly determines the direction for Q4.
Follow me: live every night at 21:00 + SMC teaching
🌿 Zhao surname, no announcement | Not investment advice