A huge bearish market news doesn’t drop but instead rises—how should we trade going forward?
This month, after September 4th, the “Otterman” turned fully bearish across the board. The logic for being bearish and shorting is that Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to be 162,000 people—an exceptionally strong expectation. If Non-Farm comes in strong, CPI will likely also beat expectations. Once CPI and Non-Farm are both strong, the Fed will almost certainly raise rates—sure enough, the forecasts have all been realized. The bill is the same: many people say it will be passed/approved, but I firmly said it wouldn’t be—I said it wouldn’t pass, and it’s been realized!
However, as of today, the price action hasn’t fallen below 75,000—this is extremely abnormal. In past normal market conditions, during these past half-months it was all under a strong bearish backdrop. Think back: in the past under continuous bad news like this, BTC (big pancake) would drop by 15,000 to around 66,000; ETH would drop by about 600 to around 1,800. Do you think that’s difficult? I don’t. It matches the characteristic of crypto—fast rallies and fast drops—where the wind blows, and grass moves first as people run away at the first sign!
But it doesn’t, and it just stays sideways, then bounces back. Do you think that’s normal? So what’s the reason? In Ultraman’s view, the main reason is still
The car for going short is too heavy. The market has already gone beyond expectations!
So today, in the live broadcast, I’m telling everyone to be careful: this move requires watching for狗庄’s tight control and suddenly cooperating with the news flow to pump the price—so as to trigger a surge of short sellers getting blown out!
Reminder: sell/exit at 761, then switch to the long position in reverse. After that, trade short-term, and operate at key points. The live broadcast has continuously provided two short-term long setups as well—giving fans tons of room!
It’s been 11 years since I entered the market as an “Ultraman.” I’ve encountered too many black swan events and this kind of contrasting market action. Here are my personal experience and my view on the market ahead!
1, in my opinion, only when the market is 55-45 between bulls and bears will it be able to move into a clear one-way trend!
2, control and sentiment are strong on the market. There are too many short positions. In the short term, the probability of a drop is not big!
3, you need to pay attention that狗庄 (the casino/rogue institutions) uses some news flow that usually doesn’t have much impact to push the price up!
4, participate in short-term trades according to the technical-structure expectations. Follow the principle: if it doesn’t break, it’s still valid; if it breaks, you exit—don’t chase, don’t fight it out. Always trade at key points! Treat it as a range!
5, the turning-point time node: the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day holiday! Before that, as long as there’s no break/upsurge beyond the level, then all short-term trading is just short-term consolidation range 755-775. Treat it as such. If it breaks up to 775, then 795 next, and then 815! If it breaks down below 750, then 738-688!
6, the long-term target 63888 stays unchanged. Use time to replace space first as a transition. Wait for the signal, wait for the window period to arrive!
For you right now, it should be quite good for accumulating positions. Beginners fear one-way trends, while veterans fear range-bound volatility! As long as you strictly follow the range: buy low at higher points (low to buy, high to avoid), and if it doesn’t break—then nothing much should go wrong!
That’s all for now—everything here is solid takeaways. If you’ve read this far, my typing hands are getting tired. Hit like and share, and give support! $BTC