After experiencing a run of macro “superweek” catalysts, including the release of the Fed’s FOMC decision and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, the crypto market in today’s early session has not shown a decisive one-way breakout. Instead, it clearly exhibits liquidity compression and narrow-range oscillation. At the macro level, as the August core CPI remains high and as the U.S. Senate’s standoff over the “CLARITY Act” (Digital Assets Market Clarity Act) drags on, risk-avoidance sentiment from traditional financial institutions is engaging in a fierce contest with crypto-native capital’s bargain-hunting efforts. With no strong incremental capital inflow, both bulls and bears are stuck at key liquidity nodes for now. This suggests that the next move is highly likely to trigger a liquidity-raiding style rapid reversal. Once liquidity at the upper highs is liquidated and an effective breakout can’t be formed,
BTC Analysis: From the perspective of driving causes, BTC is currently under multiple layers of pressure stemming from expectations of global macro policy tightening. Slowing inflows into spot ETFs and the fact that derivatives open interest remains at high levels are linked to the same weakening, which has significantly reduced the market’s ability to withstand risk.#比特币突破77000美元
Technicals combined with Wyckoff structure: Observing the current conditions, price action is in a typical transition zone from Stage B to Stage C—specifically, the liquidity probe phase between the retest and the lower-band support.
Volume Profile: The current dominant control point (POC) is precisely locked near 76850. This area is the core dense-volume zone of recent heavy trading. The upper limit of the value area sits at 77800, while the lower limit has shifted down to 75200. If price cannot hold above the POC, short-term rebounds will be capped by the VAH.
Bollinger Bands indicators: On the daily and 4-hour timeframes, the Bollinger Bands are showing a convergence/closing tendency. The midline around 76600 forms dynamic support. The MACD two lines are sticking near the zero axis, with the histogram shrinking, indicating that momentum has severely depleted. RSI is in a neutral range of 48–52. KDJ shows signs of a high-level dead cross. However, if the hour timeframe forcibly breaks below VAL, it will directly trigger a chain liquidation of long positions’ stop-loss orders.
ETH Analysis: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has remained in weak, range-bound consolidation at low levels. On-chain data shows differentiation in large holders’ and institutional staking behavior. Gas consumption from decentralized exchanges and lending protocols remains in the middle-to-low range, indicating that capital activity inside the Ethereum ecosystem is comparatively weak.#比特币ETF流出4.5亿美元