THE 76K TRAP. FED HAWKISH + ETH ROTATION — WHAT YOU NEED TO SEE

The market has just taken a double hit: FOMC unanimously raised rates by 25 bps (3.75 % → 4.00 %), the first hike since 2023, and Warsh announces a cycle that is NOT over. BTC has moved out of 82 278 (Sept 4 peak) to 76 300 (-7.3 %); ETH is collapsing to 2 427 (-5 % over 7 days). Fear & Greed: 50 — neutral, but it won’t last.

• at 76 388 (-0,6 % 24h) — support 76 700 tested 3 times, 2 170 BTC deposited to the exchange after the decision, 1 260 withdrawn. Spot BTC ETF: 96 M in outflows on Sept 16 (4th consecutive day). Spot demand absorbed, but institutional flow is fleeing.

• at 2 427 (+0,9 % 24h) — structural rotation: BTC dominance 56.9% → 58.2% in 3 weeks. ETH ETF: 24 M in outflows, BlackRock ETHA 10 M. Yet ETH outperforms BTC in % because long ETH positions capitulated and staked products rebounded.

• Macro: Core CPI 2.4% (66-month low) BUT monthly core 0.3% > 0.2% consensus. CME FedWatch: 92% chance of a hike at the FOMC on Sept 15–16. 2Y Treasury 4.664% — highest since July 2024. Yield at 5% without growth = worst mix for BTC (QCP Capital).

CTA: 76 700 or 82 000 — which one breaks first? Tell me your position in the comments. I reply to every response.

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