By analyzing the chart #SOL (Solana) on the daily timeframe, we can see a market that spent a year forming lower lows. Then the structure moved upward in September. Now it is holding onto a discount area below the price, with four stacked, untouched liquidity pools sitting above it.
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Daily Timeframe
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The downtrend was relentless. From the October top at $237.72, price printed five separate BMS events during the drop — in October and November, December and February, then again all the way until June. Every consolidation looked like a base that the next breakout would come from.
The last one of them rested on the protected bottom at $60.13 in June. From there, prices built a three-month push, then in September they broke May’s peak — with a bullish MSS break — the first bullish break in the entire move. Price is now at $100.95, and it remains stable above the breakdown level.
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Liquidity above
Previous warning: a daily close below $76.12 without reclaiming means the RBS zone failed as support, and the entry thesis was invalidated long before the structure was completed.
BSL 1 — $148.95
BSL 2 — $171.67
BSL 3 — $205.24
BSL 4 — $237.72
Four old peaks that haven’t been revisited since they formed. The peak that was never defended isn’t resistance — it’s the target.
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Overall trend
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Bullish as long as price holds above the protected bottom at $60.13.
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Scenario A — The base case
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The entry isn’t here. The area worth waiting for is the RBS zone at $76.12 to $84.23 — the resistance that limited price from February to May, then was broken in September and has now flipped into support. Price consolidated within this range for seven months, and that makes it the strongest demand on the chart instead of just a line.
A reaction from there targets $148.95 first, and above it the steps are opened.
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Scenario B — No pullback
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Price doesn’t return to the zone and keeps moving directly from the current levels. Same destination, but at a worse price, and with no defined risk — so this is the version you should watch, not trade. Entry confirmation for continuation is a daily close above $110.60, the September swing high.
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Invalidation
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A daily close below the protected bottom at $60.13. This is the source of the reversal, and below it the bullish structure is over.
Earlier warning: a daily close below $76.12 without a reclaim means the RBS zone failed as support, and the entry thesis was broken far ahead of the structure completing.
And the rule that governs all of this: the break is a candle close, not a tail (a wick). The RBS zone is where the falling tail will look like a failure — because seven months of trading within a range inside that zone means stop-loss orders sit on both sides, and that’s exactly what the tail was built to collect.
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The core backdrop
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The network side is improving. Weekly network revenue rose to $45.35 million from $32 million, transactions increased to 1.07 million, and the Transaction V1 upgrade raised the maximum transaction size to 4096 bytes. Now, Solana ETF funds have achieved 11 straight weeks of positive net inflows while holding roughly $1.41 billion in assets.
The other side is real. Weekly ETF fund flows collapsed 96% — from $153.87 million to $6.18 million — and trading volume fell by half from $699.39 million to $350.27 million. Most of the series revenue is paid in meme coins, with Pump.fun at ~85% of launchpad board activity, and this demand disappears faster than it arrives.
Strong network indicators, with a pullback in institutional supply. This mix supports a rebound into the discount zone far more than it supports chasing — and the chart already says so.
This analysis will be updated as the market develops.
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